2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Georgia_First_Review_under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_75页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 17/361: Georgia

Core Content

This report outlines the IMF's First Review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Georgia, conducted in the context of the three-year extended arrangement approved on April 12, 2017. The review was completed on a lapse of time basis, allowing the release of SDR 30 million, bringing total disbursements to SDR 60 million. The report assesses Georgia's economic performance, policy implementation, and future outlook, emphasizing the need for continued fiscal and structural reforms.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• Georgia's economic activity has strengthened, driven by growth in major trading partners and improved fiscal performance.
• GDP growth reached 4.7% y-o-y in the first half of 2017, with private consumption and net exports as key contributors.
• Inflation declined to 6.2% in September 2017, down from 7.1% in June, with core inflation hovering around 3-4%.
• The current account deficit narrowed to 9.4% of GDP in 2017H1, from 12.8% in 2016.
• Net foreign exchange reserves (GIR) increased to $3 billion by end-September 2017.

Program Status

• The EFF program is on track, with all end-June 2017 performance criteria and structural benchmarks met.
• The 2017 fiscal deficit was 0.7% of GDP below the program ceiling, due to revenue overperformance and lower-than-expected budget lending.
• The 2018 budget is projected to have an augmented deficit of 3% of GDP, with a small negative fiscal impulse of 0.3% of potential GDP.
• The program emphasizes fiscal consolidation while maintaining capital spending and investment in infrastructure.

Key Policies

• Fiscal Policy: Continued efforts to strengthen revenue administration, contain current spending, and address the VAT claims backlog.
• Monetary Policy: The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) is maintaining a neutral stance, with a focus on price stability and exchange rate flexibility.
• Financial Sector: Reforms to increase financial resilience are progressing, including legal amendments for bank regulation, deposit insurance, and emergency liquidity assistance (ELA).
• Structural Reforms: Emphasis on education, pension reform, public-private partnerships (PPPs), and improving the business environment.

Key Information

Fiscal Measures in 2017

• Revenue Measures: Estimated impact of 0.4% of GDP, with tobacco excise contributing 0.2% of GDP.
• Current Expenditure Measures: Estimated impact of 0.6% of GDP, including wage bill cuts and administrative cost savings.
• Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets: 5.4% of GDP in 2017, with a projected increase to 7.7% by 2020.
• Budget lending: 2.5% of GDP in 2017, expected to decrease to 1.5% by 2020.

Structural Reforms

• Pension Reform: Expected to increase domestic savings and reduce internal imbalances, but requires enforced contributions.
• Education Reform: Critical for inclusive growth.
• PPP Law: To be submitted by end-2017, enhancing public oversight of fiscal risks.
• Legal Entity of Public Law (LEPL): Revenues of LEPLs to be included in the budget from 2018, and in government finance statistics by 2021.

Monetary Policy

• The NBG has increased the policy rate by 25 bps in January and May 2017 to anchor inflation expectations.
• The exchange rate regime remains flexible, with FX intervention limited to smoothing volatility and building reserves.
• The policy rate corridor was narrowed by 100 bps in August 2017 to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism.

Financial Sector

• The banking sector remains liquid, profitable, and well-capitalized.
• Non-performing loans are stable at 3.5% of total loans.
• The NBG is working on guidelines for monetary policy operations and improving communication with forward guidance.

Risks and Outlook

• Short-term outlook has improved, with higher private consumption and a stronger external environment.
• Inflation is projected to decline to 3% by end-2018, with the GDP deflator expected to rise by 5.4% in 2017 and 3.4% in 2018.
• The current account deficit is expected to remain around 10.5% of GDP in 2017 and 2018, with FDI as the main source of financing.
• External debt is projected to reach 87% of GDP by 2022, but remains vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.

Recommendations

• Continue fiscal consolidation while increasing capital spending and investment in infrastructure.
• Strengthen revenue administration and address the VAT claims backlog.
• Improve monetary and fiscal transparency and forecasting.
• Implement rule-based mechanisms for pension increases and fiscal risk monitoring.
• Accelerate structural reforms, particularly in education, public administration, and financial sector resilience.

Conclusion

The IMF has approved the first review of Georgia's EFF program, recognizing the positive economic developments and policy progress. The authorities are on track to meet performance criteria and structural benchmarks, and are encouraged to sustain reforms and improve fiscal and monetary frameworks to support long-term growth and stability.