IMF国际货币组织全球-Tunisia_Fifth-Review-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-and-Requests-for-Waivers-of-Nonobservance-and-Modification-of-Performance-Criteria-and-for-Rephasing-of-Access_97页_2mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 19/223: Tunisia's Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Tunisia, conducted by the IMF Executive Board on June 12, 2019. The review included requests for waivers of non-observance of performance criteria, modification of performance criteria, and rephasing of access to the facility. The review aimed to support socially-balanced macroeconomic stabilization ahead of the fall 2019 elections.

The IMF approved the rephasing of access, making available SDR 176.7824 million (about US$245 million), which would bring total disbursements to SDR 1,161.7133 million (about US$1.6 billion). The approval also included waivers for the net international reserves (NIR) and net domestic assets (NDA) performance criteria, due to the corrective measures undertaken by the Tunisian authorities.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Context and Performance

• Growth in 2018 reached 2.6%, but remained subdued, failing to reduce unemployment, which stayed above 15%.
• Inflation dropped to 6.9% in April 2019, following a peak of 7.7% in June 2018.
• Current account deficit widened to 11.2% of GDP in 2018 due to higher oil prices.
• Public debt increased to 77% of GDP by end-2018, driven by dinar depreciation.
• Fiscal performance in 2018 was strong, with the deficit narrowing to 4.6% of GDP.

2. Policy Implementation and Outcomes

• Fiscal policy aimed at revenue mobilization, containing current spending, and maintaining public investment while strengthening social safety nets.
• Monetary policy focused on curbing inflation, with three interest rate hikes in 2018 and 2019.
• Exchange rate flexibility and reduced FX interventions were used to improve current account balances and international reserves.
• Structural reforms included business climate improvements, financial sector restructuring, and corruption reduction efforts.

3. Performance Criteria and Structural Benchmarks

• All but two Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs) were met in the Fifth Review.
• Four of nine Structural Benchmarks (SBs) were achieved, while seven were not.
• Prior Actions (PAs) for the review were completed in May 2019, including fuel price increases, tariff hikes, and healthcare reforms.

4. Risks and Challenges

• High risks to the program objectives remain, including domestic socio-political tensions, security issues, and external pressures such as rising oil prices and regional conflicts.
• Debt sustainability is a concern, with public debt still high and exchange rate depreciation posing a risk.
• Social unrest could lead to policy slippages, especially if measures affecting purchasing power are not well communicated.

5. Program Adjustments and Support

• The IMF supports the waivers and rephasing of access, emphasizing the need for continued fiscal discipline and strong communication to ensure public support.
• Structural reforms will be pursued in the medium term, including improving the business climate, access to finance, and establishing a High Anti-Corruption Authority.

Key Documents and Procedures

• The Staff Report was finalized on June 3, 2019, based on discussions with Tunisian officials from March 27 to April 9, 2019.
• Letters of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding were released separately.
• The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of policy intentions in published reports.

Program Implementation Strategy

• The 2019 deficit target is set at 3.9% of GDP, with a primary balance deficit of 1.0%.
• Revenue measures and expenditure controls are central to achieving this target.
• Energy subsidy reforms continue, with price increases and tariff adjustments to reduce the burden on the budget.
• Social safety nets are being strengthened, particularly for low-income households.

Conclusion

• The IMF encourages continued policy implementation and reform efforts to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.
• The program's success depends on maintaining social cohesion, effective communication, and strong external support.
• Structural reforms and fiscal discipline are essential for long-term economic resilience and reducing vulnerabilities.