20151105-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_13页_1mb

报告摘要

China Property Sector Summary

Core Content

The China property sector is undergoing significant changes driven by the government's efforts to increase mortgage funding through securitization. This initiative is expected to boost home sales by expanding mortgage quotas and enhancing the utilization of housing provident funds.

Key Drivers

Mortgage Growth: The bank mortgage balance increased by RMB2.35 trillion or 20.7% YoY to RMB13.7 trillion as of September 2015.
Housing Provident Fund: The housing provident fund mortgages reached RMB758.5 billion in 9M15, up 15% from RMB659.3 billion in 2014.
Mortgage to Fund Ratio: MOHURD aimed to increase this ratio to 76% as of September 2015, up from 69% in 2014.
Unused Fund Reduction: The unused housing provident fund balance decreased to RMB960 billion as of September 2015 from RMB1.15 trillion in 2014.

Impact on Home Sales

The proposed mortgage securitization is expected to directly boost home sales, especially in major cities.
Developers with a focus on first-home and home-upgrade products in major cities are likely to benefit the most.
The top picks are China Resources Land (1109 HK) and China Overseas Land (688 HK).

High-speed-rail (HSR) Infrastructure and Equipment Summary

Key Points

The Chinese HSR system combines mature technologies from Japan, France, Germany, Canada (Bombardier), and China, making it one of the safest in the world.
The system is expected to experience rapid growth following progress in the U.K. and U.S.
Potential HSR projects overseas by 2017 could exceed RMB900 billion in investment, with CRSC (3969 HK) as a major beneficiary due to its lower revenue base.
CRSC is recommended as the top pick, with its target price raised to HK$7.87 from HK$7.15.
China Railway (390 HK) is downgraded to NEUTRAL, with revised earnings for 2015-17E by -6 to -7%.
CRCC (1186 HK)'s earnings for 2015-17E are revised by +0.2 to 2.3%.

A-share Research Highlights

Key Highlights

Everbright Securities (601788 CH): Results in line with expectations, with a strong focus on Big Data strategy.
- Revenue: RMB2.83 billion in 3Q15, up 84.06% YoY.
- Net profit: RMB1.122 billion, up 116.75% YoY.
- EPS: RMB0.30.
- The company is optimistic about its Big Data-driven strategy and expects a Strong Buy rating.
Other Key Companies:
- China Resources Land (1109 HK): Maintained as a BUY with an expected EPS of RMB2.14 in 2015E.
- CRSC (3969 HK): Raised to BUY with a target price of HK$7.15.
- China Overseas Land (688 HK): Maintained as a BUY with a target price of HK$30.0.
- JD (JD US): Maintained as a BUY with a target price of US$47.3.

What to Watch

Economic Data

Germany:
- Industrial Orders MM: Forecasted at 1% vs prior -1.8%.
- Industrial Output MM: Forecasted at 0.5% vs prior -1.2%.
U.S.:
- Labor Costs: Forecasted at 2.6% vs prior 0.5%.
- Productivity: Forecasted at 0.5% vs prior 1.3%.
- Non-Farm Payrolls: Forecasted at 180k vs prior 142k.
- Private Payrolls: Forecasted at 165k vs prior 118k.
- Consumer Credit: Forecasted at RMB18.6 billion vs prior RMB16.02 billion.

Company Events

Several companies announced results or dividends on November 5, 2015, including:
- Wanjia Group Holdings Ltd. (401 HK)
- Henry Group Holdings Ltd. (859 HK)
- Boer Power Holdings Ltd. (1685 HK)
- Sunevision Holdings Ltd. (8008 HK)
- ETS Group Ltd. (8031 HK)
- New Universe International Group Ltd. (8068 HK)
- North Asia Strategic Holdings Ltd. (8080 HK)
- China Technology Solar Power Holdings Ltd. (8111 HK)
- Hua Xia Healthcare Holdings Ltd. (8143 HK)
- Millennium Pacific Group Holdings Ltd. (8147 HK)
- Bamboos Health Care Holdings Limited (8216 HK)
- CCID Consulting Co. Ltd. - H Shares (8235 HK)
- Powerwell Pacific Holdings Ltd. (8265 HK)

Research Coverage List (As of November 5, 2015)

Summary of Key Companies

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Target Price	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2014	EPS 2015E	EPS 2016E	P/E 2014	P/E 2015E	P/E 2016E
Property	China Resources Land	1109 HK	BUY	HK$23.8	6	20,073	1.95	2.14	2.54	11.5	10.5	8.8
Property	Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	HK$2.4	24	950	0.36	0.44	0.46	5.4	4.4	4.2
Property	KWG Property	1813 HK	BUY	HK$5.9	1	2,208	1.07	1.20	1.45	5.5	4.9	4.1
Property	Country Garden	2007 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.7	-11	8,800	0.65	0.47	0.58	29.0	24.3	19.7
Property	Agile Property	3383 HK	BUY	HK$4.8	11	2,188	1.42	1.03	1.24	3.1	4.2	3.5
Property	China Overseas Land	688 HK	BUY	HK$30.0	12	34,155	3.39	3.51	3.86	7.9	7.7	7.0
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Unicom	762 HK	BUY	HK$12.21	28	29,502	0.51	0.54	0.56	14.9	14.2	13.8
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Mobile	941 HK	BUY	HK$117.5	24	249,751	5.38	5.77	5.90	14.0	13.2	13.0
Technology, Media & Telecom	CRSC	3969 HK	BUY	HK$7.15	18	6,459	0.29	0.31	0.40	21.0	19.6	15.2
Machinery & Equipment	China State Construction	3311 HK	BUY	HK$18.62	56	5,995	0.88	1.09	1.41	13.6	11.0	8.5

Conclusion

The Chinese property sector is poised for growth through mortgage securitization and increased utilization of housing provident funds. Major developers with a focus on first-home and home-upgrade products are expected to benefit the most. In the HSR sector, the system's strengths and international opportunities are highlighted, with CRSC (3969 HK) as a top pick. The A-share research highlights show a mix of positive and neutral outlooks, with Everbright Securities (601788 CH) and China Resources Land (1109 HK) leading in the property sector.

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