2023-12-06-纽约联储-大流行病时代的通货膨胀驱动因素和全球溢出_58页_2mb

Drivers of pandemic-era inflation and global spillovers

A mult-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model was developed to analyze inflation drivers (2020–2023) and inflation transmission across countries during this period. Key findings:

1. Initial Factors (2020–2021): Negative supply shocks to labor, intermediate inputs, and production factors initiated inflation, amplified by global supply chain bottlenecks and productivity losses.
2. Second Phase (2021–2022): Expansionary fiscal policies intensified demand, widening supply-demand imbalances and further fueling inflation.
3. Sectoral Shifts and Energy: Reallocation of consumption between goods/services ampliState transmission via global trade networks. Energy sector shocks disproportionately affected the Euro Area more than the US.
4. Inflation Spillovers: Domestic shocks were primary drivers, though demand-side externalities could mitigate or exacerbate inflation in recipient nations.

Global insights: Production complementarities and trade elasticities determine how international shocks propagate. Findings support the view that supply-side dispersion (e.g., fragmentation) may lead to higher baseline inflation.

Policy implications: Tighter monetary policy and supply-side improvements are needed to combat inflation in an increasingly fragmented global economy.