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BIS Paper 133: The Two-Regime View of Inflation

This paper proposes a two-regime framework for understanding inflation dynamics, divided between a low-inflation regime (self-stabilizing) and a high-inflation regime (self-reinforcing). Key findings:

• Low-Inflation Regime: Characterized by self-stabilizing properties, weak price transmission across sectors, and loose wage-price links.
• High-Inflation Regime: Features amplified relative price effects, stronger wage-price spirals, and transitions that become self-reinforcing once inflation breaks through low levels.

Core Differences:

• In low inflation, prices behave more independently; in high inflation, they synchronize and exhibit persistence.
• Wages and prices have looser ties in low inflation but become more linked in high inflation.
• Rational inattention explains why low inflation is less noticeable, but high inflation becomes a focal point.

Policy Implications:

• Low-Inflation Regime: Central banks can adopt flexible monetary policy, tolerate moderate deviations from targets.
• Transition Risk: Proactive policy tightening is crucial when transitioning to high inflation to prevent a spiral; however, real-time assessment remains challenging.

The framework underscores that transitions are amplified by behavioral adjustments, stronger price stickiness, and institutional factors like indexation, and higher interest rates lose effectiveness during low inflation.