AER-当货币消亡_投机性恶性通货膨胀的动态机制_38页_1mb

Speculative Hyperinflation Equilibria

• Fiat money disappears in finite time during speculative hyperinflations due to expectations breaking from monetarist fundamentals.
• Time to zero value depends on initial conditions, money supply growth, and market structure.
• Legal restrictions and access to credit affect duration and dollarization.
• High money growth accelerates depreciation.
• Fiscal dominance prevents or limits complete devaluation.

Historical Context

• French Assignat (1795-1796): Rapid贬值 due to suspicion of unlimited issuance.
• German Papiermark (1922-1923): Seigniorage funded high money growth and limited convertibility.
• Zimbabwean Dollar (2007-2009): Dollarization accelerated as shillings depreciated rapidly.

Key Findings

• Fiat money can have finite lifespan (T < ∞) under certain preferences and payment arrangements.
• Speculative equilibria exist only when marginal liquidity premium explodes at low money values.
• Money growth rate π₀ and friction rate σ control divergence speed from steady-state.
• Legal restrictions reduce dollarization but can accelerate depreciation during hyperinflation.
• High seigniorage (g) limits or prevents complete devaluation.