2023-12-06-美联储-供应链约束与通货膨胀_82页_792kb

Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation: Quantitative Analysis

Summary

• Binding Constraints: Binding capacity constraints in supply chains act as "quasi-markup shocks," upward-sloping Phillips curve effects, altering inflation dynamics during periods of tight capacity.
• Quantitative Impact: Binding domestic constraints explain approximately half (one-quarter percentage point each) of the total inflation increase, with import constraints adding the remaining share.
• Monetary Policy Interaction: Negative capacity shocks in 2021 allowed expansionary monetary policy (lower than calibrated Taylor rule) to quickly lift inflation, as expectations shifted toward persistently binding constraints.
• Dynamics: Constraints bind unevenly, with foreign input constraints reducing import price inflation while domestic constraints raise overall price inflation.
• Data Fit: Model fits consumer and import price inflation well, counterfactual exercises show constraints significantly reduce inflation impact.
• Interpretation: Reflects pandemic-related global supply-chain disruptions amplifying demand stimuli with limited production capacity.

Structure

I. Conceptual Insights:

• Constraints (capacity, labor) binding change firm pricing/consumer behavior, generating excess inflation even with stable nominal demand.
• Model features occasionally binding constraints in output and labor markets; identifies binding via duration analysis and Phillips curve variants.

II. Key Findings

• Binding constraints explain up to nine percentage points of the maximum inflation jolt in 2021, driven by both domestic and foreign supply chain blocking.
• Counterfactuals imply slack constraints would lower inflation dramatically; combined capacity + monetary shocks drive the sudden run-up.
• Data-based duration estimates align with real-world staggered emergence of supply bottlenecks post-pandemic.

III. Methodological Approach

• DSGE Model: Piecewise-linear piecewise-linear solution for binding constraints via recursive Bayes estimation.
• Duration Shifts Shocks: DSGE approach captures evolving beliefs about constraint durations, influencing inflation and output.
• Binding Recap:
  • Cost of binding cost in electricity markets
  • Labor flexibility vs. binding capacity in labor markets