20230709-国贸期货-宏观金融资讯周报_22页_1mb

Macroeconomics Summary

• United States non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, with a decline in new jobs added in June. However, this data is not sufficient to alter the Federal Reserve's expectation for a July interest rate hike, emphasizing the ongoing risk of aggressive monetary tightening. If inflation continues to ease as anticipated, the probability of a soft landing for the US economy increases.
• China's economic recovery foundation remains unstable, with weak domestic demand and policy uncertainties. Post-June policy adjustments, including the central government meeting and stimulus measures, are expected to support growth, positioning for potential GDP stabilization if these efforts prove effective.
• Overall outlook suggests that a combination of China's economy stabilization and a soft landing in the US could sustain commodity price rebounds. Risks include underwhelming policy effectiveness domestically and excessive interest rate hikes internationally, which could impact global markets.

Stock Index Analysis

• The A-share market is experiencing a period of chaos due to sluggish economic recovery and diverging views on future policy directions. Policy responses are likely to be gradual and incremental rather than aggressive, limiting short-term drivers for the index.
• Short-term trends show index oscillation after recent pullbacks, with a potential for rebound in the near term due to accumulated downward momentum. However, a comprehensive policy direction from the upcoming Political Bureau meeting in July is crucial for market clarity.
• medium-long term prospects are optimistic, as current valuation levels are historically low, and economic and earnings are at阶段性底部, though market volatility may persist from policy wait-and-see dynamics.

Bond Market Overview

• Bond futures are experiencing narrow range oscillation, influenced by a mix of weak economic fundamentals supporting low rates and policy-related pressures. With monetary policy space limited post-June interest rate cuts, further easing is expected to be cautious.
• The outlook favors a震荡偏多 due to fiscal policy adjustments and external factors like potential US deflation or risk contagion. If the global financial situation deteriorates, it could spur additional rate cuts or amplify bond market gains.
• Operations should focus on opportunistically buying during pullbacks, as short-term minor adjustments risks exist but medium-term positive trends are intact. Key risks include policy execution issues or unexpected global events.