20260208-国泰君安期货-Fuel_Oil_Market_Report_Weekly_35页_3mb

Fuel Oil Market Report Weekly Summary

Core Content

This report provides a detailed analysis of the global fuel oil market, focusing on supply, demand, price movements, and market structures for both high-sulfur (HSFO) and low-sulfur (LSFO) fuel oils. The report is authored by Kefang Liang from GTJA Futures Research Institute and is dated 2026年2月8日.

Main Views

• Price Volatility: The short-term fuel oil market is experiencing high volatility, with prices more likely to rise than fall. This is driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• HSFO Market: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East remain unresolved, and supply disruptions could occur at any time. The spot market continues to perform strongly, with high transaction premiums in Singapore. Until a clear resolution is found, market concerns will persist, supporting spot prices.
• LSFO Market: Despite recent production resumption at Al Zour refinery and increased Japanese exports, the LSFO market still has support at its bottom. Brazilian exports are declining due to refinery maintenance, and European gasoline and diesel crack prices are high, limiting overall LSFO exports.
• Import and Export Trends: The Singapore region has seen a buildup of inventory, and exports from the Middle East and Russia are gradually increasing. The next one to two months are expected to be an off-season for the bunkering market, which may lead to excess supply.
• Price Differences: The HSFO domestic and foreign spot prices are narrowing, but the LU (low-sulfur) price difference is widening due to stronger internal price growth. This is attributed to reduced cargo arrivals in the Zhoushan area and potential production cuts by state-owned refineries.
• Market Structure: The monthly difference structure between FU (fuel oil futures) and LU has returned to contango, and the price spread is expected to narrow in the short term. The global fuel oil crack and swap term structure show a rebound in the short term, with the spread likely to continue narrowing.
• Trading Activity: Trading volumes and open interest for both FU and LU contracts are noted, indicating market sentiment and liquidity levels.

Key Information

Supply

• Refinery Utilization: Chinese refinery utilization rates for crude distillate units (CDU) and other processing units are monitored weekly.
• Global Refinery Maintenance: The report tracks global maintenance activities for CDU, hydrocrackers, FCC, and cokers, which impact production and supply.
• Production and Supply: Chinese fuel oil production and merchandise data are provided on a monthly basis, while HSFO and LSFO import and export figures are reported weekly.

Demand

• Global Fuel Oil Demand: Bunker fuel sales in Singapore and China's fuel oil consumption are analyzed on a monthly basis.
• LSFO Demand: Port-level LSFO consumption in China is also tracked, indicating regional demand trends.

Inventory

• Global Fuel Oil Inventory: Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA), Fujairah, and the United States are key regions for inventory monitoring.
• Inventory Trends: The report highlights inventory levels and their potential impact on price movements.

Price & Spread

• Asian Market: Singapore and Fujairah HSFO and LSFO FOB prices are reported, showing a narrowing HSFO price spread and a strengthening LSFO price.
• European Market: NWE and Mediterranean HSFO and LSFO FOB prices are analyzed, indicating market dynamics in key European regions.
• American Market: USGC and New York Harbour HSFO and LSFO FOB prices are reported.
• OTC Swap Market: Swap prices for HSFO and LSFO in Singapore and NWE are detailed, showing market expectations and price structures.
• Chinese Future Market: Prices and spreads for FU and LU futures contracts are analyzed, including the main contract and next-month contract close prices.
• Physical Market Spread: The price spread between HSFO and LSFO in Singapore is monitored, indicating market dynamics and potential price movements.
• Global Fuel Oil Crack: Crack prices in Singapore and NWE for HSFO and LSFO are reported, reflecting the cost of production and market expectations.
• Term Structure: Calendar spreads for HSFO and LSFO in Singapore and NWE are detailed, showing the market's forward-looking price expectations.

Import & Export

• Chinese Market: Monthly import and export data for fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) are provided, highlighting trade flows and market dynamics.
• Global Import and Export: Weekly import and export figures for HSFO and LSFO are analyzed, showing global trade patterns and potential supply imbalances.

Strategic Insights

• Short-Term Volatility: Fuel oil prices are expected to remain volatile, with potential for continued upward movement.
• Price Spread Trends: The HSFO price spread is narrowing, while the LU price spread is widening, indicating different market dynamics.
• Market Outlook: The next one to two months may see a gradual emergence of excess supply due to the off-season for bunkering, which could impact prices if demand does not pick up.

Risks

• Geopolitical Conflicts: Middle East and Latin American conflicts pose a risk to supply stability.
• Trade Negotiations: Ongoing China-US trade negotiations could influence market sentiment and trade flows.

Conclusion

The fuel oil market is influenced by a combination of geopolitical factors, supply and demand dynamics, and price spreads. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these factors to make informed investment decisions. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential for price adjustments based on global supply and demand trends. Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider multiple factors before making decisions.