2025年全球电商手册_在更成熟的环境中寻找机会（英文版）-高盛_70页_4mb

Goldman Sachs 2025 Global eCommerce Handbook Summary

1. Global eCommerce Industry Overview

• Market Growth: Global eCommerce sales reached $4.3tn in 2024, projected to grow at a +6% CAGR (2025-2030), reaching $6.4tn by 2030.
• Online Penetration: Will reach 26% of addressable retail sales (excluding auto/gas) by 2030, up from 23% in 2025.
• Key Regions: US, China, and Europe lead, with India/LatAm showing fastest growth.

2. Key Growth Drivers

• Food and Beverage: Will grow at +10% CAGR through 2030, accounting for 17% of eCommerce sales (up from 14% in 2025).
• Quick Commerce: Grocery delivery and quick commerce drive incremental growth, particularly in India and Southeast Asia.
• Essential Goods: Staples like food, pet care, and health/beauty outpace discretionary spending, especially in developed markets.

3. Regional Insights

• US: eCommerce sales to reach $1.7tn by 2030, with food delivery and price competitiveness driving consolidation (Temu, Shopee, MercadoLibre gaining share).
• China: Market dominated by Alibaba/JD.com, with food delivery and social commerce (Douyin/TikTok Shop) intensifying competition.
• LatAm: Rapid shift from offline to online, with Brazil/Mexico as key markets. Temu’s aggressive pricing strategy challenges incumbents, while TikTok Shop enters the market.
• Europe: Low online penetration (avg. 17%), with Germany/UK leading. Zalando benefits from the divergence between online and offline growth.

4. Investment Recommendations

• Buy-Rated Companies:

  • Amazon.com (AMZN): Global market leader with strong cloud/cloud growth.
  • JD.com (JD): China market leader, favored for its value ecosystem.
  • Coupang (CPNG): Strong in South Korea, driving grocery/cloud growth.
  • Sea Ltd. (SE): Southeast Asia leader with cross-border/ticketing ambitions.
  • MercadoLibre (MELI): Key LatAm player with e-commerce and fintech synergies.
  • Zalando (ZAL): European market leader with integrated logistics.
  • Eternal Ltd. (ETEA): India’s food delivery leader, growing quickly.

• Key Risks:

  • Macroeconomic slowdowns, trade tensions, and regulatory scrutiny in key markets.
  • Increased competition from Chinese platforms (e.g., Temu) in emerging markets.
  • Profitability challenges due to promotional pressures and geographic expansion.

5. Valuation and Outlook

• P/E Multiples: Currently discounted vs. historical averages due to slower growth but support growth-adjusted multiples.
• DCF Models: Recommend 15-20x EV/EBITDA for high-growth platforms (e.g., Coupang), with 6-10% IRR achievable for select companies.
• Scenario Analysis: Recession risks could halve eCommerce growth in extreme cases, but consolidation and efficiency gains provide resilience.

Conclusions

Goldman Sachs sees a mature but resilient eCommerce sector, with CPG/food driving growth. Key themes include technological innovation (AI/automation), market consolidation, and regulatory risks. Investors should focus on platforms with strong moats, scalable models, and exposure to high-margin/food-centric markets.