远东资信-财政收入增速放缓，基建类支出明显下滑——2023年5月财政数据点评-12页_442kb

Fiscal Data Analysis: May 2023 Insights

Fiscal Revenue

In May 2023, national public fiscal revenue reached 16521 billion yuan, growing by 3274% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous months due to weakening economic recovery. Central fiscal revenue climbed 3902%, while local fiscal revenue rose 2696%, both influenced by low base effects from prior years. Tax income surged 4196% overall, dragged by high growth in value-added tax (VAT) driven by base effects and deferred tax payments, whereas non-tax revenue declined 781%. Key taxes like consumption tax showed sluggish growth due to insufficient demand, and import/export-related taxes dropped with trade activity slowing.

Fiscal Expenditure

May expenditure reached 18403 billion yuan, up 153% year-on-year, with the first five months showing a 38.1% spending pace above historical averages, indicating preemptive fiscal stimulus. Central government spending increased sharply at 908%, while local expenditure remained relatively flat. Expenditure categories highlight rapid growth in livelihood-related areas, such as social security and employment (+813% year-on-year), supporting job stability, whereas infrastructure spending slowed significantly across most categories, except for urban community affairs.

Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure

Government fund income for the first five months fell 15%, narrowing from prior months, with local land sale revenue declining 20%, though hot cities showed strong溢价 rates. Expenditure plunged 127% cumulatively, mirroring revenue declines, with policy signals emphasizing risk mitigation and investment in key areas.

Policy Tracking

Central policies stress implementing positive fiscal measures and fortifying local debt management, with plans to expand special bond uses to boost investment. Local examples, like Henan's producer rewards and Guangxi's project funding, demonstrate fiscal support for industry and infrastructure. Ongoing efforts focus on balancing economic recovery with debt containment.

Summary and Outlook

Fiscal performance shows high expenditure preloading to support livelihoods and address economic challenges, while revenue growth reflects base effects and policy shifts. Future actions may stimulate investment through bond refinancing, but risk management remains critical, highlighting the need for sustainable fiscal practices and targeted policy implementation.