20150820-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_Grease_Spot_11页_783kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary (19 August 2015)

Core Content Overview

This summary outlines the current state of the oil and gas market in Asia and the broader global context, including price movements, company performance, and analyst ratings. It also highlights key developments in the sector, such as new projects, strategic partnerships, and production figures.

Oil & Gas Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Fell by 3.4% to USD47.16/b, with a 1-day change of -1.65 USD/bbl.
WTI Crude Oil: Dropped by 4.3% to USD40.80/b, with a 1-day change of -1.82 USD/bbl.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Rose slightly by 0.0% to USD48.74/b, with a 1-day change of +0.01 USD/bbl.
China Daqing Spot: Increased by 0.4% to USD43.15/b, with a 1-day change of +0.18 USD/bbl.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Rose by 0.4% to USD2.72/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of +0.01 USD/MMBtu.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Increased by 0.4% to USD7.86/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of +0.00 USD/MMBtu.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Dropped by 2.1% to USD61.59/b, with a 1-day change of -1.34 USD/bbl.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Rose by 0.7% to USD62.15/b, with a 1-day change of +0.45 USD/bbl.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Increased by 0.6% to USD251.95/mt, with a 1-day change of +1.54 USD/mt.
Gold: Rose by 1.4% to USD1,133.88/Oz, with a 1-day change of +16.17 USD/Oz.
USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Remained stable at 6.40, with a 1-day change of +0.00.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Dropped by 0.9% to 17,348.73, with a 1-day change of -162.61.
S&P 500: Declined by 0.8% to 2,079.61, with a 1-day change of -17.31.

Key News Headlines

Oil slump continues on US stockpiles: US crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels to 456.21 million barrels, reinforcing concerns about a global oil glut. The drop in prices was over 4%.
Glencore CEO on Commodity Price Improvement: The CEO of Glencore stated that commodity prices would eventually improve, but the company is currently benefiting from diversification. Glencore's first-half net income dropped by 56% to USD882 million.
Roc Oil gets South China Sea blocks: Roc Oil has taken over operatorship of two blocks in the South China Sea from CNOOC, bearing all costs during the exploration period.
China's Xinjiang Guanghui to build LNG plant in Kazakhstan: The plant will have a capacity of 100 million cubic meters per year, potentially increasing to 300 mcm.
Russia and China discuss western route gas pipeline: The main terms and conditions have been set, including a Russian-Chinese border crossing corridor for the pipeline.
China posts 2.4% rise in January-July crude output: Total crude output was 124.1m tonnes, up 2.4% from the same period last year. However, Sinopec's output fell 4.33%.

Analyst Ratings and Key Insights

Malaysia Oil & Gas - PETRONAS: NEUTRAL rating, with a warning that the MYR26b dividend payout may not be maintained if market conditions remain weak. Capital discipline is emphasized, with capex/OPEX cuts expected.
NewOcean Energy: Reiterate BUY, with 118% upside. Earnings and operating stats are on track, and auto LPG margin widened.
Barakah Offshore Petroleum: BUY with a MYR1.15 target price, focusing on Malaysia's deepwater works.
Perisai Petroleum: SELL, with a target price lowered to MYR0.25. Net profit forecasts cut by 35% / 21% / 13% due to lower DCRs.
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations:
- PetroChina - H: Sell, with a 7.08 price and 8.30 target price. Market cap: USD292.4 billion.
- Sinopec - H: Hold, with a 5.58 price and 7.70 target price. Market cap: USD104.9 billion.
- CNOOC LTD: Buy, with a 9.41 price and 16.80 target price. Market cap: USD54.2 billion.
- ONGC: NR, with a 260.6 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD34.3 billion.
- Reliance Industries: NR, with a 954.6 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD47.5 billion.
- Cairn India: Hold, with a 151.6 price and 198.00 target price. Market cap: USD4.4 billion.
- BPCL: NR, with a 887.1 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD9.9 billion.
- HPCL: NR, with a 877.5 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD4.6 billion.
- Petron Corp: Buy, with a 8.30 price and 11.25 target price. Market cap: USD1.7 billion.
- Phoenix Petro: Buy, with a 3.30 price and 4.75 target price. Market cap: USD0.1 billion.
- Formosa Petrochemical: NR, with a 69.70 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD20.5 billion.
- Bangchak Petroleum: Buy, with a 35.00 price and 41.00 target price. Market cap: USD1.4 billion.
- IRPC PCL: Hold, with a 4.00 price and 3.74 target price. Market cap: USD2.3 billion.
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: Buy, with a 58.25 price and 87.00 target price. Market cap: USD7.4 billion.
- Thai Oil PCL: Sell, with a 49.50 price and 65.00 target price. Market cap: USD2.8 billion.
- PetroVietnam Gas: Buy, with a 48,900 price and 92,000 target price. Market cap: USD4.1 billion.

Oil-Service Valuations

COSL: NR, with a 9.55 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD11.5 billion.
Anton Oil: NR, with a 1.19 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.3 billion.
SPT Energy: NR, with a 0.92 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.2 billion.
Hilong: NR, with a 1.80 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.4 billion.
Honghua: NR, with a 0.65 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.3 billion.
Petro King: NR, with a 0.90 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.1 billion.
Jutal Offshore: NR, with a 0.81 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.1 billion.
Shengli Pipe: NR, with a 0.25 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.1 billion.
Chu Kong Pipe: NR, with a 1.38 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.2 billion.
AlamMaritim: Sell, with a 0.40 price and 0.50 target price. Market cap: USD0.1 billion.
Barakah Offshore: Buy, with a 0.88 price and 1.15 target price. Market cap: USD0.2 billion.
Bumi Armada: Buy, with a 0.87 price and 1.60 target price. Market cap: USD1.2 billion.
Coastal Contracts: NR, with a 1.90 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.2 billion.
Daya Materials: NR, with a 0.10 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.0 billion.
Dayang Enterprise: NR, with a 1.55 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.3 billion.
Dialog: Buy, with a 1.55 price and 1.90 target price. Market cap: USD1.9 billion.
KNM: Buy, with a 0.49 price and 1.00 target price. Market cap: USD0.2 billion.
MMHE: Hold, with a 0.99 price and 1.32 target price. Market cap: USD0.4 billion.
Muhibbah Engineering: NR, with a 1.81 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.2 billion.
Perdana Petroleum: Buy, with a 1.47 price and 1.70 target price. Market cap: USD0.3 billion.
Perisai Petroleum: Sell, with a 0.30 price and 0.25 target price. Market cap: USD0.1 billion.
Petra Energy: NR, with a 0.92 price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.1 billion.
SapuraKencana: Hold, with a 1.71 price and 2.80 target price. Market cap: USD2.5 billion.
TH Heavy Engineering: NR, with a NR price and NR target price. Market cap: USD0.0 billion.

Analyst Contact Information

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688, tliaw@maybank-ib.com
Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Notes

LNG Northeast Asia CFR is based on ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price.
Market assessments are made by Platts at 4:30 pm Singapore time.
NR indicates "Not Rated", and UR means "Under Review".
All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.

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