20151028-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_792kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content Overview

The document provides a summary of recent developments in the global and regional oil and gas markets, along with company-specific updates and financial valuations. It highlights the continued downward pressure on oil prices and the impact on major players and service providers, while also outlining investment ratings and price targets.

Key Market Trends

Oil Prices:
- Brent crude fell by 1.5% to USD46.81/b, marking a 3.9% decline over one week and 5.0% over one month.
- WTI crude dropped 1.8% to USD43.20/b, with a 6.7% weekly and 6.5% monthly decline.
- Dubai Fateh Spot declined 1.5% to USD43.78/barrel, with a 2.0% weekly and 2.3% monthly drop.
- China Daqing Spot fell 1.9% to USD41.13/barrel, with a 2.9% weekly decline but a 6.6% monthly increase.
- US natural gas hit a 3.5-year low, falling to $1.948/MMBtu, down 5.5% on the day and 15.5% over the last week.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR decreased by 1.9% to USD7.10/MMBtu, with a 1.0% weekly increase and 4.0% monthly rise.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot was slightly up by 0.1% to USD58.81/barrel, with a 0.0% weekly and -2.1% monthly change.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot dropped 0.4% to USD58.91/gallon, with a -0.1% weekly and -1.0% monthly decline.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot fell 0.02% to USD241.89/mt, with a -0.5% weekly decline and a 1.6% monthly increase.
- Gold rose 0.2% to USD1,166.45/Oz, with a -0.9% weekly and 1.8% monthly increase.
- USD-CNY remained stable at 6.35, with 0.0% daily and -0.3% monthly change.
- DJI fell 0.2% to 17,581.43, with a 2.1% weekly increase and 7.8% monthly rise.
- S&P 500 dropped 0.3% to 2,065.89, with a 1.7% weekly increase and 7.0% monthly gain.
Market Conditions:
- Oil prices are under pressure due to US inventory data and weak demand in China.
- US natural gas prices are falling due to unusually warm weather and low oil prices.
- China gasoil exports reached a record high in September due to low domestic demand.
- BP reported a significant drop in profits due to low oil prices affecting its upstream operations.
- Shell announced a $2 billion charge to exit an oil-sands project, indicating strategic shifts in its operations.

Company Updates

Icon Offshore

Secures spot charters for 2 AHTS: Sell rating, with a MYR0.25 target price.
Terminates vessel order: Sell rating, with an unchanged MYR0.25 target price.

Yinson Holdings

Secures 2nd extension for FPSO Adoon: Buy rating, with a MYR4.35 target price.
Targets 1-2 FPSO wins and is a growth stock with resilient earnings.

UMW Oil & Gas

Naga 8 secures a sub-USD100k DCR charter, but 75% of rigs are idle.
Sell rating with MYR0.80 target price due to low utilisation and reduced DCR forecasts.

Investment Ratings and Valuation

Asia Oil & Gas Companies

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (27-Oct)	Target Price	Market Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	6.16	4.80	241.2	85.1	27.1	47.1	6.7	7.5	2.8	0.8	1.6
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	5.75	6.00	95.5	68.3	13.9	15.2	5.9	6.2	6.5	0.9	3.5
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	8.74	11.70	50.4	91.7	16.1	19.0	4.1	4.3	5.1	0.8	0.8
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	3.52	7.70	0.7	0.9	5.0	4.0	4.7	3.4	19.0	0.9	2.0
Gas Malaysia	GMB MK	Buy	2.38	2.65	0.7	0.2	24.8	24.7	13.8	13.4	12.2	3.0	4.0
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	23.22	24.00	10.8	8.1	25.4	25.1	15.2	14.9	16.7	4.1	2.8
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	7.56	11.25	1.5	0.5	17.3	10.2	8.1	7.1	4.4	0.8	0.7
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines	PNX PM	Buy	3.58	4.75	0.1	0.0	6.1	5.3	7.8	7.0	11.6	0.7	2.8
S-Oil	010950 KS	NR	67,500	NR	6.7	19.6	9.7	9.7	7.1	7.3	15.1	1.4	2.7
SK Innovation	096770 KS	NR	115,000	NR	9.4	35.2	8.5	8.4	6.5	6.8	8.0	0.7	2.6
GS Holdings	078930 KS	NR	49,150	NR	4.0	8.8	9.5	8.0	9.5	8.5	8.5	0.6	3.1
Formosa Petrochemical	6505 TT	NR	80.50	NR	23.6	7.1	17.8	19.3	11.8	12.3	16.7	2.8	3.9
Bangchak Petroleum	BCP TB	Buy	36.00	41.00	1.4	2.9	9.1	8.3	5.9	5.5	4.4	0.7	0.7
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	58.25	87.00	7.4	21.6	9.8	9.0	6.2	5.7	11.3	1.1	5.0
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	285.0	395.00	22.9	61.0	10.6	9.5	16.7	14.9	10.4	1.1	4.1
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	56.00	65.00	3.2	8.7	9.5	9.5	6.3	6.3	13.9	1.2	4.8
Asian Refiners average	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.3	12.2	3.4	9.1	8.9	1.6	3.3

Asia Oil & Gas Service Providers

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (23-Oct)	Target Price	Market Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
COSL	2883 HK	NR	9.25	NR	10.3	12.6	11.5	13.6	13.1	11.7	5.3	0.5	0.0
Anton Oil	3337 HK	NR	1.06	NR	0.3	0.6	N/A	N/A	34.8	12.0	8.2	-2.9	0.0
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	0.82	NR	0.2	0.4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	7.1	-14.4	0.0
Hilong	1623 HK	NR	1.71	NR	0.4	0.4	9.3	8.0	7.7	6.3	10.1	0.8	1.8
Bumi Armada	BAB MK	Buy	0.95	1.20	1.3	3.9	27.7	24.9	10.1	10.2	3.1	0.9	0.0
Dialog	DLG MK	Buy	1.62	1.90	1.9	2.8	28.6	30.7	27.3	29.0	15.9	4.1	1.4
KNM	KNMG MK	Buy	0.53	1.00	0.2	3.9	7.6	6.4	5.6	4.5	5.1	0.4	0.0
UMW O&G	UMWOG MK	Sell	1.19	2.55	0.6	1.1	-24.9	-14.0	31.6	64.8	-3.3	0.8	0.0
WahSeong	WSC MK	Sell	1.19	0.90	0.2	0.1	12.7	13.3	8.4	8.4	6.6	0.8	4.2
Yinson	YNS MK	Buy	2.91	4.35	0.7	0.3	21.1	18.7	15.1	15.0	13.9	2.1	0.7

Analysts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact details provided.
Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact details provided.
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact details provided.
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact details provided.
Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): Contact details provided.
Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact details provided.
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact details provided.
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.
Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.

Notes

LNG Northeast Asia CFR is based on ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price for LNG.
All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
N/A indicates data not available.
NR stands for Not Rated.
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE.