20150731-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_782kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content Overview
The document provides an overview of the oil and gas market conditions as of 30 July 2015, including price movements, key news headlines, and analyst recommendations for various companies across Asia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It also includes a detailed table of valuations and financial metrics for companies in the oil and gas sector, highlighting their current market status and future outlook.
Key Market Movements
- Brent Crude Oil fell by 0.1% to USD53.31/b.
- WTI Crude Oil dropped by 0.6% to USD48.52/b.
- Dubai Fateh Spot increased by 2.2% to USD54.09/b.
- China Daqing Spot rose by 1.6% to USD49.04/b.
- NYMEX Henry Hub decreased by 3.4% to USD2.77/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR increased by 1.6% to USD8.04/MMBtu.
- Gold fell by 0.7% to USD1,088.76/Oz.
- USD-CNY remained stable at 6.21.
- DJI decreased by 0.0% to 17,745.98.
- S&P 500 increased by 0.0% to 2,108.63.
News Headlines
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Oil recovers on stockpile hopes: OPEC expects increasing oil demand to stabilize prices and aims for a more balanced market in 2016. However, OPEC and Russia have not cut output to support prices, and Iran's potential increase in production may challenge this.
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Shell cuts capex and jobs: Shell reduced its capital expenditure by 20% to USD30 billion and warned of around 6500 job losses due to low oil prices and weaker output. The company plans to sell assets worth USD20 billion.
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Cnooc oil-sands spill: A significant spill by Cnooc's Nexen unit in Canada has worsened the outlook for pipeline projects, raising concerns about environmental and operational challenges.
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China's Shaoxing Yuandong files for bankruptcy: The company, a major PTA producer, filed for bankruptcy due to financial issues and feedstock shortages. Two of its plants were already shut down since 2014.
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Shale gas market growth: The global shale gas market is expected to reach USD104.1 billion by 2020, with a CAGR of 9.3%, driven by energy needs and improved exploration technologies.
Analyst Recommendations
- PetroVietnam Drilling (PVD): Initiated at BUY with a target price of VND90,530. The company is a drilling contractor, and its shares are undervalued with potential upside.
- Malaysia Oil & Gas: NETURAL due to the agreement between Iran and P5+1. Focus on production operators, with preferred BUYs for Yinson, Bumi Armada, Dialog, and KNM.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: HOLD with a target price of MYR2.80. The company secured a USD273 million turnkey job from ONGC, and GSA negotiations are ongoing.
- Petronas Chemicals: HOLD with an updated target price of MYR6.60. The company's ASPs are down, but there is potential for upside due to weaker MYR against USD.
Asian Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (30-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (x) 2015E | PER (x) 2016E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2015E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (x) 2015E | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 7.79 | 8.30 | 326.6 | 121.1 | 22.6 | 14.1 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 5.89 | 7.70 | 114.2 | 105.4 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.72 | 16.80 | 56.0 | 98.3 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 270.9 | NR | 36.1 | 19.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,000.2 | NR | 50.5 | 62.0 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 169.0 | 198.00 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 947.2 | NR | 10.7 | 21.1 | 21.8 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 15.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 939.0 | NR | 5.0 | 19.3 | 24.0 | 14.7 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 60.8 | 87.00 | 7.8 | 24.7 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 317.0 | 395.00 | 25.8 | 46.5 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 16.7 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 47.3 | 65.00 | 2.7 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 5.3 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.72 | 24.00 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 23.8 | 23.5 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 16.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 59,500 | 92,000 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 25.0 | 2.8 | 5.3 |
Asian Oil & Gas Average
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (30-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (x) 2015E | PER (x) 2016E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2015E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (x) 2015E | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.72 | 16.80 | 56.0 | 98.3 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 169.0 | 198.00 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 10.0 | 0.4 | 5.5 |
| INTEX | 1605 JT | NR | 1,337 | NR | 15.8 | 60.3 | 23.3 | 26.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 527 | NR | 10.6 | 49.4 | N/A | 7.5 | -251.4 | 8.2 | -15.1 | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 1,170 | NR | 3.6 | 17.6 | 15.2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| TenonGeneral | 5012 JT | NR | 1,243 | NR | 5.7 | 15.3 | 21.4 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Idemitsu | 5019 JT | NR | 2,239 | NR | 2.9 | 14.8 | N/A | 6.8 | -33.2 | 7.6 | -15.9 | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Cosmo | 5007 JT | NR | 201 | NR | 1.4 | 7.2 | N/A | 5.8 | -163.8 | 8.3 | -36.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Asian Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (30-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (x) 2015E | PER (x) 2016E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2015E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (x) 2015E | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 0.98 | 1.15 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 18.1 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.09 | 1.60 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.57 | 1.90 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 30.9 | 29.0 | 25.2 | 25.3 | 14.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 11.8 | 16.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 3.05 | 4.35 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 22.1 | 19.6 | 15.1 | 15.6 | 13.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
Summary of Key Points
- Oil prices have declined significantly in the past year, with Brent and WTI down by 16.9% and 18.9% respectively.
- Shale gas market is expected to grow to USD104.1 billion by 2020, with a CAGR of 9.3%.
- Cnooc's oil-sands spill has raised environmental concerns and may hinder pipeline development in Canada.
- Shaoxing Yuandong filed for bankruptcy due to financial problems and supply glut in PTA.
- Shell is cutting costs and reducing capex, with potential for 6500 job losses.
- PetroVietnam Drilling is recommended as a BUY due to its alignment with NOC and potential upside.
- Malaysia Oil & Gas is NETURAL with a focus on production operators.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum is HOLD with a modest impact on earnings.
- Petronas Chemicals is HOLD with an updated target price.
- Asian oil & gas valuations show a range of performance, with CNOOC LTD as the top performer.
- Asian oil-service valuations also highlight varied performance, with Barakah Offshore and Bumi Armada as BUY recommendations.
This summary highlights the market dynamics and investment outlook for key players in the Asian oil and gas sector, emphasizing both challenges and opportunities.
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