20150908-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_784kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed summary of the oil and gas market conditions in the Asia-Pacific region as of 7 September 2015, including price movements, market trends, and company-specific analyses. It also outlines key news headlines and analyst contacts for the region.
Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Closed at USD47.63/b, down 4.0% from the previous day.
- WTI Crude Oil: Closed at USD46.05/b, with no change from the previous day.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Closed at USD47.38/b, down 2.7% from the previous day.
- China Daqing Spot: Closed at USD43.57/b, down 3.1% from the previous day.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Closed at USD2.66/MMBtu, with no change from the previous day.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Closed at USD7.62/MMBtu, down 3.1% from the previous day.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Closed at USD60.14/b, with no change from the previous day.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Closed at USD63.59/b, down 2.4% from the previous day.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Closed at USD248.09/mt, down 3.9% from the previous day.
- Gold: Closed at USD1,119.35/Oz, down 0.2% from the previous day.
- USD-CNY: Closed at 6.37, up 0.2% from the previous day.
- DJI: Closed at 16,102.38, down 2.6% from the previous day.
- S&P 500: Closed at 1,921.22, down 2.6% from the previous day.
Key News Headlines
-
Oil extends drop as Russia rules out production cuts with OPEC:
- Russia is not cooperating with OPEC to cut production, leading to continued oil price declines.
- Futures dropped as much as 4.2% in New York from the previous close.
- Sanctions on Iran's oil exports are expected to be lifted in early 2016.
-
Argentina aims to join shale trailblazers:
- Argentina's energy company, YPF, is exploring shale resources, particularly in Vaca Muerta.
- This formation is one of the largest unconventional energy reserves globally.
-
Saudi, Abu Dhabi OSP cuts for Asia reflect weak demand, increasing competition:
- Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi are lowering their official selling prices to Asian buyers.
- This reflects a weak demand-supply balance and low refinery margins in Asia.
- It highlights the ongoing pressure on Middle East producers to maintain market share.
-
Arab Gulf countries to discuss unifying oil product pricing:
- The six GCC oil ministries are set to meet in Doha to discuss unifying oil product prices.
- The goal is to enhance cooperation on energy and petroleum strategies.
-
Singapore's Ramba Energy to Farm Out 25% Stake in Indonesian PSC:
- Ramba Energy plans to farm out a 25% stake in the Lemang PSC.
- The transaction includes an upfront cash payment of USD18.75 million and potential milestone-based payments.
Our Latest Reports
PetroChina - Elephant in the Mud (SELL)
- 1H15 Net Profit: CNY25.4b, down 63% YoY, representing 50% of the full-year forecast.
- 2H15 and 2016 Expectations: Drastic earnings cuts due to lower oil price assumptions.
- Consensus Projections: Still around 20-25% above the forward curve.
- Rating: Under review, new projections and rating will be published.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp - Strong 1H15, but Challenging 2H (HOLD)
- 1H15 Net Profit: CNY25.4b, down 22% YoY, 68% of FY15 consensus forecast.
- 2H15 and 2016 Expectations: Drastic earnings cuts due to lower oil price assumptions.
- Consensus Projections: Still around 20-25% above the forward curve.
- Rating: Under review, new projections and rating will be published.
CNOOC - A Breath of Fresh Air (BUY)
- 1H15 Profit: CNY14.7b, which was 57% of FY15 consensus forecast.
- Management Performance: Strong volume growth and cost control.
- Earnings Outlook: Expect drastic earnings cut for 2H15 and 2016.
- Rating: Under review, new projections and rating will be published.
Asian Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 7-Sep | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.77 | 8.30 | 235.2 | 103.1 | 16.8 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 4.75 | 7.70 | 89.3 | 84.3 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 3.7 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.68 | 16.80 | 50.0 | 93.9 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 226.1 | NR | 28.9 | 17.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 13.3 | 1.0 | 4.4 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 833.2 | NR | 40.4 | 59.9 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 147.4 | 198.00 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 0.4 | 6.2 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 830.2 | NR | 9.0 | 24.8 | 19.1 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 769.4 | NR | 3.9 | 24.3 | 19.7 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.45 | 11.25 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 17.0 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.20 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 55.8 | 87.00 | 7.0 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 11.4 | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 49.00 | 65.00 | 2.8 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 13.6 | 1.1 | 5.1 |
Analyst Contacts
- Hong Kong/China: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- India: Jigar Shah (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Indonesia: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Malaysia: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tliaw@maybank-ib.com
- Philippines: Michael Bengson (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Singapore: Yeah Chee Keong (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Thailand: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Vietnam: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Asia Oil & Gas Average
- Average Multiples: Weighted by market capitalization.
- All forward-looking estimates and multiples: For companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage, including those under review, are from Bloomberg consensus.
Asian Oil & Gas Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 7-Sep | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 7.93 | NR | 9.4 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 0.7 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 0.69 | NR | 0.1 | 0.5 | N/A | N/A | 27.0 | N/A | 5.7 | N/A | 0.0 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 1.51 | NR | 0.3 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 10.9 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.53 | NR | 0.2 | 0.6 | N/A | N/A | 20.7 | N/A | 7.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 0.81 | 1.20 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 23.5 | 21.1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | Sell | 0.32 | 0.25 | 0.1 | 0.9 | -236.1 | -21.1 | 17.8 | 26.5 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 1.70 | 2.80 | 2.4 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| UMW Oil & Gas | UMWOG MK | Sell | 1.00 | 2.55 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -236.1 | -21.1 | 17.8 | 26.5 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Summary of Key Points
- Oil Prices: Global oil prices were declining, with Brent down 4.0% and WTI down 0.0%.
- Market Trends: The weak demand and low refinery margins in Asia are affecting oil prices, leading to price cuts by Middle East producers.
- Company Performance: Chinese and Indian oil companies reported mixed results, with some facing significant earnings cuts due to low oil prices.
- Investment Outlook: Maybank KE analysts have issued ratings for various companies, with some suggesting sell or buy based on their performance and market conditions.
- Stake Farm Out: Ramba Energy in Singapore is planning to farm out 25% of its stake in an Indonesian PSC.
- Valuation Metrics: The report includes detailed valuation metrics such as PER, EV/EBITDA, and ROE for various companies in the region.
- Analyst Contacts: A list of analysts and their contact details for the region is provided.
This summary captures the essential market data, news, and analyst insights relevant to the oil and gas sector in the Asia-Pacific region as of 7 September 2015.
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