20150828-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_782kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market in August 2015, highlighting key price movements, news headlines, and analyst reports for major players in Asia, India, and other regions. It includes both price data and valuation metrics for various companies, along with investment ratings and forecasts.
Key Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Rose by 10.2% to USD47.56/b.
- WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 10.3% to USD42.56/b.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Up 3.5% to USD44.55/b.
- China Daqing Spot: Grew by 4.2% to USD39.12/b.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Down by 1.4% to USD2.66/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Increased by 4.2% to USD7.70/MMBtu.
- Gold: Stable at USD1,125.00/Oz.
- USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Remained flat at 6.41.
- DJI: Up 2.3% to 16,654.77.
- S&P 500: Rose 2.4% to 1,987.66.
News Headlines
- Oil swings to biggest gains in six years: Oil prices surged due to recovering equity markets and reduced crude supplies, marking the largest one-day rally in over six years.
- For OPEC, This Year's Painful Oil Slump Will Bring Gains in 2016: OPEC may gain market share in 2016 due to reduced non-OPEC supply and increased consumption.
- PetroChina profit dives 63% in first half: PetroChina's net profit fell to CNY25.4b, with a significant drop in upstream and marketing earnings.
- European refineries may delay maintenance: Refiners may push back maintenance to January due to healthy margins.
- Total sells midstream assets: Total sold North Sea midstream assets to North Sea Midstream Partners for £585 million.
- China's commercial crude stocks build 1.05% in July: Crude stocks increased by 1.05% to 33.57m tonnes, with production up 4.14% and imports slightly down.
Analyst Reports
China
- PetroChina - H: SELL rating, with a target price of MYR8.30, and a market cap of USD239.8b.
- Sinopec - H: HOLD rating, with a target price of MYR7.70, and a market cap of USD87.5b.
- CNOOC LTD: BUY rating, with a target price of MYR16.80, and a market cap of USD53.1b.
India
- ONGC: Not Rated (NR), with a price of INR230.3.
- Reliance Industries: Not Rated (NR), with a price of INR869.2.
- Cairn India: HOLD rating, with a price of INR139.3 and a target price of INR198.00.
- BPCL: Not Rated (NR), with a price of INR880.2.
- HPCL: Not Rated (NR), with a price of INR831.3.
Japan
- INTEX: Not Rated (NR), with a price of MYR1,165.
- JAPEX: Not Rated (NR), with a price of MYR3,340.
- JX Holding: Not Rated (NR), with a price of MYR444.
- Showa Shell: Not Rated (NR), with a price of MYR992.
- TonenGeneral: Not Rated (NR), with a price of MYR1,151.
- Idemitsu: Not Rated (NR), with a price of MYR19,949.
- Cosmo: Not Rated (NR), with a price of MYR180.
Malaysia
- Gas Malaysia: BUY rating, with a price of MYR2.01 and a target price of MYR2.65.
- Petronas Gas: HOLD rating, with a price of MYR20.96 and a target price of MYR24.00.
Philippines
- Petron Corp: BUY rating, with a price of PHP7.62 and a target price of PHP11.25.
- Phoenix Petro: BUY rating, with a price of PHP3.30 and a target price of PHP4.75.
South Korea
- S-Oil: Not Rated (NR), with a price of KRW58,500.
- SK Innovation: Not Rated (NR), with a price of KRW97,000.
- GS Holdings: Not Rated (NR), with a price of KRW44,200.
Thailand
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: BUY rating, with a price of THB55.50 and a target price of THB87.00.
- PTT PCL: BUY rating, with a price of THB259.0 and a target price of THB395.00.
- Thai Oil PCL: SELL rating, with a price of THB49.00 and a target price of THB65.00.
Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Gas: BUY rating, with a price of VND44,400 and a target price of VND92,000.
Valuation Metrics
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Price (26-Aug) | Maybank KE Rating | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 6.55 | Sell | 8.30 | 239.8 | 110.3 | 19.1 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Sinopec - H | 5.04 | Hold | 7.70 | 87.5 | 90.9 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 9.22 | Buy | 16.80 | 53.1 | 94.5 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 2.6 |
Asia Oil-Service
| Company | Price (26-Aug) | Maybank KE Rating | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 6.55 | Sell | 8.30 | 239.8 | 110.3 | 19.1 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Anton Oil | 5.04 | Hold | 7.70 | 87.5 | 90.9 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| SPT Energy | 9.22 | Buy | 16.80 | 53.1 | 94.5 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 2.6 |
Key Insights
- Oil Price Recovery: Oil prices experienced significant gains in August 2015, with Brent and WTI rising over 10%, marking the largest one-day rally in six years.
- OPEC Outlook: OPEC may benefit from the oil slump in 2015, as non-OPEC supply is expected to contract in 2016, potentially increasing their market share.
- PetroChina Performance: PetroChina's profits dropped by 63% in the first half of 2015 due to lower oil prices, but the company's natural gas segment saw growth.
- Refinery Activity: European refineries may delay maintenance due to strong margins.
- Asset Sales: Total sold midstream assets in the North Sea to North Sea Midstream Partners.
- Market Valuation: Companies in Asia are under different valuation ratings, with some showing strong performance and others facing challenges.
- Investment Outlook: Analysts have issued various ratings, with some recommending "Buy" and others "Sell" based on projected earnings and market conditions.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
