2016-2021亚太区跨境旅行展望报告（英文版）_22页_1mb

Mastercard Future of Outbound Travel in Asia Pacific (2016 to 2021) Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of outbound travel trends in 17 Asia Pacific markets from 2016 to 2021, combining household growth projections and Mastercard survey data to forecast travel behavior. It highlights the growth of outbound travel in both developed and emerging markets, with a focus on China as the largest market and the potential for growth in emerging economies.

Main Points

• Asia Pacific as a Fast-Growing Region: Over the past decade (2005-2014), Asia Pacific has been the fastest-growing region for international tourist arrivals, driven by China's outbound travel wave.
• Outbound Travel Growth Forecast: The region is projected to grow at an annual rate of 6% from 2016 to 2021.
• Market Segmentation:
  • Developed Markets: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • Emerging Markets: China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka.
• Top Outbound Markets by 2021:
  • China is expected to be the largest outbound market, with 103.4 million trips.
  • South Korea and India follow, with South Korea surpassing Japan in 2015.
• Growth Rates:
  • Emerging Asia Pacific is expected to grow more than twice as fast as Developed Asia Pacific (7.6% vs. 3.3%).
  • Myanmar is the fastest-growing market with a 10.6% CAGR, followed by Vietnam (9.5%), Indonesia (8.6%), China (8.5%), and India (8.2%).
• Outbound Travel to Households Ratio:
  • In 2021, Developed Asia Pacific markets will have a ratio of 100% or higher, indicating that most households travel abroad.
  • Emerging Asia Pacific markets have lower ratios, with India having the lowest at 7.3%.
  • Singapore and Hong Kong have the highest ratios, indicating a strong propensity for outbound travel among their households.

Key Information

Outbound Travel by Market (2016-2021)

Outbound Travel Growth vs. Real GDP Growth (Chart 2)

• Myanmar is the fastest-growing market with a 10.6% CAGR.
• Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and India also show high growth rates.
• Outbound travel growth tends to outpace real GDP growth, especially in developing markets.
• Developed markets (excluding Japan) have growth rates closer to GDP growth.
• Japan is an exception, with outbound travel growth significantly lower than GDP growth.

Outbound Trips-to-Households Ratio (Chart 3)

• Developed markets have higher ratios, with Singapore and Hong Kong leading.
• Emerging markets have lower ratios, with India and Bangladesh at the lower end.
• India is expected to see a significant increase in its ratio from 5.2% in 2016 to 7.3% in 2021.
• Malaysia had a high ratio in 2013-2016, which may explain its lower growth rate compared to other emerging markets.

Outbound Trip Concentration by Income Brackets (Chart 5)

• Higher income households in developed markets have concentration ratios between 1.3 and 3.1.
• Emerging markets show higher concentration ratios, especially among India (47.3) and Bangladesh (31.1).
• Outbound travel becomes less of a luxury good as GDP per capita increases, with a more even distribution across income levels.
• China and India have a high concentration of outbound travel among higher-income households.

Outbound Travel by Market (Detailed)

Australia

• Outbound trips: 10.0 million in 2016, projected to reach 11.8 million by 2021.
• Growth rate: 3.5% CAGR.
• Outbound to households ratio: 107.0% in 2016, projected to 119.2% in 2021.
• Higher-income households (above US$100,000) account for 51.8% of all outbound trips.

Bangladesh

• Outbound trips: 2.3 million in 2016, projected to reach 2.6 million by 2021.
• Growth rate: 2.9% CAGR.
• Outbound to households ratio: 6.8% in 2016, projected to 7.4% in 2021.
• Middle and higher-income households account for most of the outbound trips.

China

• Outbound trips: 68.7 million in 2016, projected to reach 103.4 million by 2021.
• Growth rate: 8.5% CAGR.
• Outbound to households ratio: 15.6% in 2016, projected to 23.0% in 2021.
• Middle and higher-income households (above US$30,000) account for most of the outbound trips.

Hong Kong

• Outbound trips: 5.8 million in 2016, projected to reach 6.8 million by 2021.
• Growth rate: 3.0% CAGR.
• Outbound to households ratio: 222.3% in 2016, projected to 248.9% in 2021.
• High ratio due to limited domestic tourism.

India

• Outbound trips: 14.5 million in 2016, projected to reach 21.5 million by 2021.
• Growth rate: 8.2% CAGR.
• Outbound to households ratio: 5.2% in 2016, projected to 7.3% in 2021.
• Middle and higher-income households (above US$30,000) account for most of the outbound trips.

Conclusion

The report highlights the significant growth potential in outbound travel within the Asia Pacific region, particularly in emerging markets. While developed markets like Australia and Singapore show steady growth, emerging markets such as India and Myanmar have the greatest potential for expansion due to their low outbound travel ratios. The concentration of outbound travel among higher-income households in emerging markets indicates that as these economies grow, there will be a substantial increase in outbound travel activity. The report also notes that Japan remains an anomaly due to structural issues affecting its outbound travel growth.