2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_Republic_of_Tanzania_Second_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_68页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 15/181: United Republic of Tanzania

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 15/181 outlines the second review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for the United Republic of Tanzania, which was approved on July 16, 2014. The report includes a Press Release, Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director, and evaluates the country's economic performance, fiscal and monetary policies, and structural reforms.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Performance and Prospects

• Tanzania's macroeconomic performance remains strong, with real GDP growth of about 7% in 2014 and inflation slightly below the 5% target.
• The economic outlook is favorable, with robust growth and moderate inflation expected.
• External current account deficit is projected to fall to 9.5% of GDP due to lower oil prices.
• Exchange rate volatility has increased, but the depreciation of the Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) is largely attributed to the USD's strengthening.

2. Program Performance

• The program's performance has been uneven since the last review.
• All end-December 2014 assessment criteria were met, but the indicative target on tax revenue collection was missed.
• Suppliers' arrears increased during the second half of 2014, and the authorities have initiated a plan to clear them.
• Net domestic financing (NDF) and net international reserves (NIR) targets were missed due to delays in external financing and increased liquidity.
• Staff recommends completing the second PSI review and modifying the assessment criteria for NDF and NIR for end-June 2015.

3. Fiscal Policy

• The overall budget deficit target for 2014/15 is expected to be met at 3.8% of GDP (or 4% including arrears clearance).
• The draft 2015/16 budget targets an underlying deficit of 3.5% of GDP, consistent with a medium-term fiscal anchor of slightly below 3% of GDP.
• Revenue mobilization efforts are being strengthened through tax measures, including new levies and adjustments to the VAT law, which are expected to generate additional revenue of over 1% of GDP.
• Expenditure ceilings were reduced by 1.9% of GDP in the mid-year review, with 1.6% of GDP attributed to the postponement or cancellation of investment projects.

4. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• Monetary policy was loosened in late 2014, leading to an unexpected increase in excess reserves and a fall in interest rates.
• The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) reversed the earlier reduction in reserve requirements in May 2015 to address excess liquidity and exchange rate pressures.
• Foreign exchange intervention should be restricted to smoothing volatility, with more reliance on domestic currency instruments.
• The NIR target for June 2015 is out of reach, and needs to be revised. However, the import cover ratio is expected to increase to 4 months in 2015/16, and further to 4.5 months by 2016/17, aligning with the East African Monetary Union (EAMU) convergence criteria.

5. Structural Reforms and Arrears Management

• The verification of domestic supplier arrears was completed, with a plan to clear them over two fiscal years.
• A strategy to address pension fund arrears is being finalized, with the government agreeing to cover liabilities to the Public Sector Pension Fund (PSPF), estimated at 1.5% of GDP.
• Commitment controls will be reintroduced in the Integrated Financial Management System (IFMS) to prevent new arrears.
• The Debt Management Department is expected to be fully operational in early 2015/16, and a medium-term debt management strategy will be updated and approved by the end of 2015.

6. Financial Stability

• Financial stability indicators have improved, with gross non-performing loans declining from 8.4% to 6.7% of total loans.
• The banking system remains well capitalized and liquid, with most banks complying with the BoT's directive to increase minimum capital levels.
• The BoT is planning a pilot examination under new consolidated supervision rules by late 2015.
• AML/CFT supervisory framework is being strengthened to address concerns related to money laundering.

Key Information

• Donor support has resumed following progress in the IPTL case, but future engagement is uncertain.
• Parliamentary and presidential elections are scheduled for October 2015, which could increase expenditure pressures.
• Natural gas revenue management is being addressed through a comprehensive policy paper, which includes the establishment of a Natural Gas Revenue Fund fully integrated into the budget.
• Budgetary reforms are underway, including the passing of a new Budget Act and the review of the Public Finance Act.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board commended Tanzania's corrective measures to meet the 2014/15 budget deficit target and praised the draft 2015/16 budget for its ambitious and prudent fiscal approach. However, structural reforms and arrears management remain critical areas requiring further attention. The medium-term fiscal sustainability and debt management are also under focus, with the aim of maintaining a low risk of debt distress and aligning with regional convergence criteria.