2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Rwanda_Eighth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Extension_and_Third_Review_Under_the_Standby_Credit_Facility_64页_1mb

Rwanda: Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Third Review Under the Standby Credit Facility

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and the Third Review Under the Standby Credit Facility (SCF) for Rwanda, approving a US$25.8 million disbursement under the SCF and extending the PSI program until December 1, 2018. These reviews were conducted in the context of economic developments and policy adjustments made by the Rwandan authorities in 2017.

Main Points

• Economic Performance: Rwanda's economy has shown resilience despite a slowdown in 2016 and early 2017. Growth is expected to return to its historical average of 7–7.5% by 2018–2019, driven by public infrastructure investments and structural reforms. Inflation has declined significantly and is projected to remain below the central bank's target of 5% in the short term.

• IMF Support: The SCF arrangement has provided additional financing to support the PSI program. The total disbursements under the SCF and PSI have reached SDR 144.18 million (about US$206.6 million), with the latest disbursement of US$25.8 million.

• Policy Adjustments: The program is based on exchange rate flexibility, public spending restraint, and prudent monetary policy. These measures have helped reduce the current account deficit and rebuild international reserves. The central bank has also initiated a transition to an interest rate-based monetary policy framework.

• Fiscal Policy: The fiscal stance for FY2018/19 was slightly relaxed, but the overall fiscal deficit remained in line with program targets. Revenue collection was consistent with 7th PSI Review projections, and the government is working to improve domestic revenue mobilization.

• Structural Reforms: Most structural benchmarks and quantitative targets were met. The electronic billing machine initiative was delayed to use more cost-effective software. The revised medium-term development strategy aims to achieve middle-income status by 2035, with the government focusing on domestic revenue mobilization and private investment.

• Exchange Rate and Reserves: The Rwandan franc (RWF) has depreciated significantly since mid-2015, contributing to external adjustment. Foreign exchange reserves have increased rapidly, with the NFA floor exceeded by a large margin.

• Program Modality: The IMF staff supports the continuation of the PSI and SCF arrangements, with the authorities' request to extend the PSI program through end-2018. The program conditionality includes measures to enhance fiscal resilience, deepen financial markets, and promote structural transformation.

Key Information

• Growth and Inflation:

  • Real GDP growth in 2016 was 5.9%, and in 2017 was estimated at 5.2%.
  • Inflation declined sharply, reaching 2.3% in November 2017, with projections of 4.0% in 2017 and 5.0% in 2018.

• Fiscal Deficit:

  • Overall fiscal deficit stood at 4.6% of GDP in FY2016/17, meeting the nominal program ceiling.
  • The primary fiscal deficit excluding grants was lower than the previous year.

• Current Account:

  • The current account deficit improved from 14.9% of GDP in 2016 to 8.8% in 2017.
  • Exports increased by 43%, driven by a more competitive exchange rate and structural reforms.

• Monetary Policy:

  • The central bank reduced the policy rate by 50 basis points since December 2016.
  • The monetary stance is being gradually relaxed, and the transition to an interest rate-based framework is underway.

• Reserves and Debt:

  • Gross international reserves reached US$1,001 million in 2016 and US$1,128 million in 2017.
  • Total public debt increased from 44.5% of GDP in 2016 to 47.6% in 2017.

• Program Performance:

  • All continuous and end-June 2017 quantitative targets were met.
  • Most indicative targets and structural benchmarks were also achieved, with the exception of the electronic billing machine initiative.

• Economic Outlook:

  • Growth is expected to return to historical averages of 7–7.5% in the medium term.
  • Fiscal risks and external vulnerabilities remain, requiring continued resilience-building and fiscal consolidation.

• Program Modality:

  • The PSI and SCF arrangements are supported by the IMF Executive Board.
  • The program conditionality includes measures to enhance transparency, deepen financial markets, and support private-sector-led growth.

Summary of Economic Indicators (2016–2019)

Risks and Challenges

• External Vulnerabilities: The economy remains vulnerable to external shocks and fiscal risks.
• Fiscal Resilience: Continued fiscal consolidation and transparency are necessary to ensure long-term stability.
• Monetary Policy: The monetary transmission mechanism is still underdeveloped, requiring further reforms.
• Structural Reforms: Structural reforms need to be accelerated to support long-term growth and poverty reduction.

Conclusion

Rwanda has made notable progress in reducing external imbalances, rebuilding reserves, and achieving macroeconomic stability. The IMF's support through the PSI and SCF has played a crucial role in this process. The government's revised medium-term development strategy aims to achieve middle-income status by 2035, with a focus on domestic revenue mobilization and private investment. The program performance remains strong, with the IMF Executive Board approving the extension of the PSI and disbursement under the SCF. Continued policy implementation and structural reforms are essential to sustain economic growth and poverty reduction in the medium term.