2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Mozambique_Third_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_54页_1mb

Summary of the Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Mozambique

Core Content

The third review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Mozambique, conducted by the IMF staff team from October 22 to November 6, 2014, outlines the country's economic performance, policy challenges, and future outlook. The report highlights the need for fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and improved macroeconomic stability to support sustainable and inclusive growth.

Main Views

Economic Performance

• Mozambique's macroeconomic performance remains robust, with strong economic growth and low inflation.
• Real GDP growth reached 7.2% in the first half of 2014, driven by extractive industries, construction, manufacturing, utilities, and financial services.
• Inflation remained low, at 1.3% in October 2014, due to favorable international prices and stability in administered prices.
• The real effective exchange rate has been broadly stable since 2012.

Fiscal Policy and Reforms

• The 2014 fiscal stance was expansionary, with current spending rising by 0.8% of GDP.
• The 2015 budget aims to reverse the expansionary stance, reducing current spending by 1.1 percentage points of GDP and domestically financed investment.
• The overall fiscal deficit after grants is projected to decrease by 3 percentage points of GDP.
• The 2015 budget law includes an ex-ante rule for windfall revenues, directing them toward infrastructure and debt reduction.
• Tax administration reforms are ongoing, including VAT refund management and e-Tax system expansion.
• The wage bill has been growing rapidly, with staff urging reform to ensure medium-term sustainability.
• The 2015 draft budget reflects a reduction in total expenditure by 4.5 percentage points of GDP compared to 2014.

Monetary Policy and Financial Sector

• The Bank of Mozambique (BM) aims to maintain low inflation while lowering private sector borrowing costs.
• Reserve money growth is expected to be slower in 2015 than in 2014, helping to moderate broad money and credit growth.
• Private sector credit as a share of GDP is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the need for reforms to improve financial sector efficiency.
• The BM is strengthening its inflation analysis and forecasting capabilities, and enhancing monetary policy operations.

Investment and Structural Reforms

• Investment planning and public investment management are critical for sustainable growth.
• Fiscal adjustment over the medium term is essential to preserve debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability.
• Structural reform priorities include improving public financial management, monetary policy tools, banking supervision, and business facilitation.
• Completion of the LNG contract negotiations is a key milestone for the Rovuma Basin LNG project, which is one of the largest in sub-Saharan Africa.
• Foreign aid is expected to decline, so increased borrowing will be necessary to finance infrastructure and human capital development.

Risks and Challenges

• Economic risks remain moderate, but downward risks have increased due to lower coal prices and high transport costs.
• Mining companies may face production delays if coal prices do not recover.
• Fiscal risks are considerable, stemming from reliance on donor support, susceptibility to natural disasters, and quasi-fiscal activities.
• A Fiscal Risk Unit (FRU) is planned for March 2015 to assess and manage fiscal risks.

Key Information

• GDP rebasing in July 2014 increased GDP by 11% for 2009, with only modest changes in sectoral composition.
• The current account deficit was reduced by 15% in the first half of 2014 due to slower investment activity.
• The reserve cover remained around 4 months of projected non-megaproject imports since 2010.
• The new government is expected to take office in January or February 2015.
• Windfall revenues from natural resources are expected to decline in the future, requiring fiscal discipline.
• The program performance has been mixed, with only one of seven structural benchmarks met on time.
• The 2015 budget includes reforms to improve transparency, tax administration, and public financial management.
• The IMF supports the fiscal consolidation and structural reform agenda to ensure long-term economic stability.

Program Issues

• The 2014 fiscal performance exceeded some targets, but missed others.
• Reserve money exceeded targets in June 2014, but NIR was affected by valuation losses.
• The new government will need to prioritize the transition to a resource-rich economy and improve the business climate for non-resource sectors.
• Structural reforms are progressing, but delays are expected due to capacity constraints.

Staff Appraisal

• The staff supports the review and updated the policy mix for 2015 to slow government expenditure growth.
• The main objectives are to maintain fiscal sustainability, preserve a low inflation environment, and reinvigorate structural reforms.
• The 2015 budget is expected to reduce the domestic primary deficit by 2 percentage points of GDP and overall fiscal deficit after grants by 3 percentage points of GDP.
• The BM and authorities have agreed on a more prudent fiscal stance, and the Fiscal Risk Unit is a key initiative to address vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

Mozambique's economic outlook remains positive, with strong growth and low inflation, but fiscal and structural reforms are essential to ensure sustainability and long-term stability. The IMF has supported the review and emphasized the need for continued fiscal discipline, improved tax administration, and enhanced financial sector development. The new government is expected to take on these challenges and implement reforms to foster inclusive growth and manage risks effectively.