2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_Republic_of_Tanzania_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_Second_Review_Under_the_Stand_52页_1mb

Summary of the United Republic of Tanzania: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, Second Review Under the Standby Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the sixth review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and the second review under the Standby Credit Facility (SCF) arrangement for the United Republic of Tanzania, along with a request for modification of performance criteria. It includes a staff report, a press release on the Executive Board's discussion, and a statement by the Executive Director for Tanzania.

The report details economic developments, program performance, policy discussions, and risks associated with the macroeconomic program. It also provides an analysis of the program's implementation, including fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms, and outlines staff recommendations for the continuation and adjustment of the program.

Main Points

1. Economic Outlook and Performance

• Economic Growth: Continued strong growth, with a real GDP increase of 6.9% in 2012 compared to 6.4% in 2011. Growth is projected to remain around 7% in the medium term.
• Inflation: Headline CPI inflation has declined to 9.8% in March 2013, with core inflation at 5.9%. The target of 7% inflation by December 2013 is expected to be met.
• Current Account Deficit: Remains large, but has narrowed slightly due to improved trade balance (especially coffee and cotton exports) and reduced oil imports. The deficit is expected to moderate significantly after the gas pipeline is completed in 2015.
• Foreign Exchange: Authorities drew US$114 million under the SCF in February 2013 to strengthen reserves and stabilize the Shilling. Reserve money growth was 16% in March 2013, slightly below the program target of 19.7%.
• Debt Outlook: Debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stabilize at 45% in 2014/15. The risk of debt distress remains low, but the program highlights the need for conservative borrowing and sound debt management.

2. Program Performance

• Performance Criteria: All performance/assessment criteria for end December were met, but tax revenues and net domestic financing for end March were not.
• Structural Reforms: Progress has been made on some structural benchmarks, but four out of five were either not completed or delayed. This includes the action plan for TANESCO and the VAT bill submission.
• Fiscal Deficit: The 2012/13 fiscal deficit target was revised from 5.5% to 5.8% of GDP, due to the US$100 million IDA loan for the power sector. The 2013/14 budget aims for a 5% deficit.
• TANESCO Financing: TANESCO's financing gap for 2012/13 was US$438 million, with US$354 million transferred from the central government budget. The remaining US$19 million will be carried forward to 2013/14.

3. Policy Discussions

A. Economic Outlook

• The economy is projected to grow at 7% in 2013/14 and in the medium term.
• Inflation is expected to decline to 7% by December 2013, with a medium-term target of 5%.
• The current account deficit is expected to remain large, but the gas pipeline will reduce reliance on expensive liquid fuels.

B. Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Financial Sector Policies

• Monetary Policy: Tightened to reduce inflation. The reserve money growth target was reduced to 14.2% from 15.7%.
• Exchange Rate: The authorities maintain a market-determined exchange rate, with limited interventions to smooth short-term fluctuations.
• Banking Sector: Remains sound, profitable, and liquid. The BoT is finalizing Mobile Financial Services Regulations.

C. Fiscal Policies and Structural Reforms

• Tax Revenues: Expected to increase by 1.5 percentage points of GDP in 2013/14, with excises and import duties projected to contribute 1.2 percentage points and administrative gains 0.3 percentage points.
• Recurrent Spending: Projected to increase by 1.1 percentage points of GDP, driven by wage bill growth.
• VAT Bill: Submission has been reset to November 2013 to allow for further stakeholder consultation.
• Debt Management: The Debt Management Office is pending approval, and the new VAT bill is critical for long-term revenue sustainability.

D. Program Risks and Design Issues

• Short-term Risks:
  • Ambitious revenue targets may be unmet, leading to expenditure cuts or new arrears.
  • Delays in the TANESCO action plan could risk growth and public finances.
  • ENCB borrowing is close to the ceiling, requiring careful monitoring to avoid exceeding it.
• Medium-term Risks:
  • External shocks and high investment, low growth scenarios could affect debt sustainability.
  • Pension liabilities and infrastructure needs may challenge fiscal consolidation.

Key Recommendations

• Completion of the Sixth Review under the PSI and the Second Review under the SCF.
• Modification of Performance Criteria:
  • Lower target for average reserve money growth for end-June 2013.
  • Higher cumulative ENCB ceiling from July 1, 2013.
• Resetting of Structural Benchmark:
  • Delayed submission of the VAT bill to November 2013.
• Enhanced Exchange Rate Flexibility: Staff encourages greater flexibility to act as a shock absorber.
• Reinvigorate Structural Reforms: Focus on public financial management, energy sector reforms, debt management, and statistical reforms.

Conclusion

The staff report highlights positive economic developments in Tanzania, including strong growth, declining inflation, and improved trade balances. However, short-term risks remain due to ambitious fiscal targets, delays in structural reforms, and potential external shocks. The Executive Board has approved the sixth review and second review, and staff recommendations include modifying performance criteria and resetting structural benchmarks. The Tanzanian authorities are committed to fiscal consolidation, monetary tightening, and strong policy implementation under the SCF arrangement. They are also considering future engagement with the IMF, including a potential new PSI in 2014.