2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_Republic_of_Tanzania_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_a_Six_52页_3mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 17/180: United Republic of Tanzania

Core Content

This document outlines the sixth review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Tanzania and includes the request for a six-month extension of the program. The review was conducted by the IMF staff team, who met with Tanzanian officials, development partners, and private sector representatives. The report highlights Tanzania's macroeconomic performance, challenges in budget implementation, and the importance of continued structural reforms.

Main Points

Macroeconomic Performance

• Tanzania's macroeconomic performance has been strong, with real GDP growth of 7 percent in 2016.
• Inflation has remained moderate and is expected to fall toward the 5 percent target.
• The external current account deficit narrowed to 1.6 percent of GDP in the first half of 2016/17.
• Gross international reserves increased to about 4 months of import cover by March 2017.
• The Tanzanian shilling depreciated by 3 percent since early 2017, but appreciated slightly in real effective terms.

Program Performance

• Most quantitative targets for December 2016 and March 2017 were met.
• A minor slippage in the tax revenue assessment criterion was waived by the IMF.
• Two out of five structural benchmarks were met as scheduled, while others were delayed due to implementation issues.
• The program has supported macroeconomic stability and equitable growth, but structural reforms have been uneven.

Fiscal Policy

• The 2016/17 budget initially targeted a deficit of 4.6 percent of GDP but was revised to less than 3 percent due to lower revenue and financing.
• Tax-to-GDP ratio increased by about 1.5 percent, supported by anti-corruption and tax evasion measures.
• The 2017/18 budget targets a deficit of about 4 percent of GDP with increased development expenditure.
• Revenue measures include tax policy reforms and improved tax administration, aiming to increase the revenue-to-GDP ratio by 1.25 percentage points.
• The authorities agreed to delay some development projects, including the Dar es Salaam port renovation, until revenues are confirmed in the mid-year budget review.

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) has maintained inflation at single-digit levels through a reserve money targeting framework.
• Recent monetary easing was appropriate due to the benign inflation outlook and decelerating credit growth.
• The BoT has taken steps to ease liquidity constraints, including reverse repos and FX swaps.
• Nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased to 9.6 percent of GDP in December 2016, primarily in the trade and real estate sectors.
• The BoT has placed two banks under administration and liquidation due to non-compliance with capital and regulatory standards.

Key Risks

• Budget financing shortfalls remain a key risk, particularly due to delays in external financing and donor disbursements.
• Prolonged slowdown in private sector credit growth and uncertainty about government strategies could negatively impact economic activity.
• A tightening of global financial conditions may increase financing costs and complicate budget execution.

Policy Recommendations

• The IMF supports the request for a six-month extension of the PSI program to cover negotiations for a successor arrangement.
• Revenue projections should be more realistic to avoid accumulation of domestic payment arrears.
• Sustained implementation of structural reforms is essential for long-term macroeconomic stability and growth.
• The government should continue efforts to improve public financial management, enhance transparency, and strengthen the business environment to support private sector-led growth.

Key Information

• Program Extension: The Executive Board approved a six-month extension of the PSI arrangement from July 2017 to January 2018.
• Performance: The program has been satisfactory, with most targets met and a favorable medium-term outlook.
• Fiscal Deficit: The 2016/17 fiscal deficit was 0.6 percent of GDP, lower than the programmed 3.3 percent.
• Tax Reforms: Tax policy and administration reforms have contributed to increased tax revenue and reduced fiscal deficits.
• Monetary Policy: The BoT has taken measures to ease liquidity and stabilize the exchange rate, but the transmission mechanism remains weak.
• Nonperforming Loans: NPLs increased to 9.6 percent in December 2016, with significant contributions from trade and real estate sectors.
• Development Plan: The second Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP II) aims to promote industrialization, human development, and private sector-led growth.
• Natural Resource Management: Tanzania is expected to become a major producer and exporter of natural gas, with progress in legal and regulatory frameworks.

Conclusion

The IMF staff report affirms Tanzania's strong macroeconomic performance and supports the extension of the PSI program. It emphasizes the need for continued fiscal discipline, improved budget execution, and sustained structural reforms to ensure long-term stability and growth. The report also highlights the importance of enhancing the business environment and addressing financial sector vulnerabilities to support the government's development agenda.