2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Rwanda_First_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_57页_1mb

Rwanda: First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument

Core Content Summary

This document outlines the findings of the IMF's first review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Rwanda, conducted in March–April 2014. It includes the Staff Report, Press Release, and related documents such as the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding. The report highlights Rwanda's economic performance, policy challenges, and recommendations for sustaining growth and managing fiscal and monetary risks.

Main Challenges

• Sustaining high growth: Rwanda continues to face the challenge of maintaining high growth while reducing aid dependency and avoiding imbalances.
• Limited policy buffers: The use of foreign exchange reserves over previous years has constrained the room for maneuver.
• Agricultural weakness: Weak agricultural growth in 2013 led to a slowdown in overall economic activity.
• Delayed government projects: Delays in project implementation have affected economic performance and public spending.
• Fiscal risks: The need to maintain fiscal discipline while supporting development projects and managing public debt.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Growth projection: Growth is expected to increase to 6 percent in 2014, with a medium-term outlook of 7.5 percent.
• Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain well-contained, likely below 5 percent by year-end.
• Downside risks: Delays in government projects and weak agricultural performance pose short-term risks.
• Upward risks: Rising private sector interest in investment, particularly in horticulture and food exports, could support export diversification and alleviate balance of payments constraints.

Policy Discussions

A. Short-Term Policies

• Fiscal stance: A cautious fiscal approach is needed to support growth and preserve foreign reserves, while maintaining priority spending and allowing private sector credit expansion.
• Monetary policy: The NBR is maintaining exchange rate flexibility to prevent foreign exchange market pressures.
• Credit expansion: Private sector credit slowed in 2013 but is expected to recover in 2014.
• Exchange rate: The currency has depreciated by 6.1 percent over the past two years, with the spread between official and market rates now below 2 percent.

B. Medium-Term Policies

• Investment in development: The government needs to finance development projects efficiently, especially under EDPRS2.
• Domestic resource mobilization: Mobilizing domestic resources is critical to support the ambitious development agenda.
• Project prioritization: Careful selection and prioritization of projects, with judicious use of non-concessional financing, is necessary.
• Tax reforms: Increasing the tax revenue ratio to GDP is a key component of the PSI, with measures to improve tax collection in the agricultural, mining, and property sectors.

Fiscal Developments

• Budget surplus in 2013: The fiscal position turned to a surplus due to lower spending and higher revenues.
• Deficit reduction: The budget deficit is projected to fall to slightly below 3 percent of GDP in FY2014/15.
• Supplementary budget: The supplementary budget for FY2013/14 reduced the deficit by 0.5 percent of GDP.
• Tax collection: Tax collection has improved, with a focus on increasing the tax revenue ratio to 14.9 percent by the end of FY2014/15.
• Tax reforms: The introduction of a turnover tax on agriculture and a royalty tax on mining, along with VAT collection from electronic billing machines, is expected to boost tax revenues.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• Policy rate: The NBR has kept the policy rate at 7.5 percent since June 2013.
• Reserve money: Reserve money growth is aligned with targets.
• Exchange rate flexibility: The NBR is committed to greater exchange rate flexibility to maintain policy buffers.
• Treasury bill issuance: The NBR has introduced longer maturity treasury bills and plans for bond issuances in 2014.
• Inflation report: The central bank published its first quarterly inflation report in early April 2014.

Key Recommendations

• Tax reforms: Implement a presumptive turnover tax on agriculture and expand property taxation to urban areas.
• Debt ceiling: Increase the non-concessional borrowing ceiling to $250 million for FY2014/15 to support development projects.
• Communication and coordination: Improve communication between parastatals and the Ministry of Finance, and between the government and the IMF, to enhance program design and implementation.
• Project prioritization: Carefully prioritize investment projects to manage fiscal risks and ensure sustainability.

Important Documents

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF staff for the Executive Board's consideration, completed on May 13, 2014.
• Press Release: Announced the release of the Staff Report and related documents.
• Letter of Intent: Sent by the Rwandan authorities to the IMF.
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies: Updated version included in the report.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Also included in the Staff Report.

Key Tables and Boxes

• Box 1: Discusses the effects of re-basing GDP to 2011 prices, showing minimal impact on GDP levels but changes in growth rates.
• Box 2: Highlights Fund recommendations for tax reforms in the agricultural, mining, and property sectors.
• Box 3: Explains fiscal risks in Rwanda, including those from state-owned enterprises and PPPs.

Conclusion

The review underscores Rwanda's commitment to economic growth and stability while addressing fiscal and monetary challenges. The government is focused on improving tax collection, managing public debt, and supporting development through efficient investment and project prioritization. The IMF has encouraged continued flexibility in monetary policy and improved communication to ensure the success of the PSI program.