2021-11-25-牛津经济研究院-Global_The_real_estate_bounce_will_extend_into_2022_4页_409kb

Global Real Estate Outlook for 2022

Summary

This report analyzes the expected performance of global real estate in 2022. It highlights a strong rebound following the pandemic, with overall returns projected at 8%. Specific sectors show varying levels of growth, influenced by economic recovery, supply chain adjustments, and shifts in consumer behavior.

Key Findings

• The industrial sector is anticipated to offer superior returns at 14.2%, driven by distribution, warehousing, and urban logistics, due to ongoing changes in retail and manufacturing.
• Residential real estate is expected to see high returns of 8.6%, supported by urbanization, smaller household trends, and affordability constraints, making it attractive to investors.
• Office returns are forecasted at 6.6%, the highest since 2019, attributed to modern spaces adaptable to hybrid working and ESG requirements.
• Retail and leisure sectors are projected to lag with 5.9% and 5.2% returns respectively, due to muted consumer spending and recent reimposed restrictions in some regions.
• Geographically, North American real estate is expected to lead with over 9% returns, while Asian returns are lower at 6.9%.
• Medium-term risks include rising interest rates, inflation, and uneven global recovery, which could temper returns by 2026, bringing them below historical averages.

Drivers and Risks

• Recovery is fueled by easing COVID restrictions, allowing spending to return to services.
• Downside risks involve supply chain issues, policy changes affecting homeworking, and potential inflationary pressures from central banks.
• Long-term trends like demographic shifts and secular stagnation may pressure returns, emphasizing resilience in certain sectors.

Outlook

While 2022 shows a robust bounce, future performance hinges on global economic balance and sustainable practices, with risks of slower growth affecting overall real estate resilience.