2022-01-18-牛津经济研究院-Europe_Real_estate_obsolescence_risk_lowest_for_the_Nordics_5页_265kb

Real Estate Obsolescence Risk Summary: Nordics Lead the Way

The report, published on January 18, 2022, uses a new European index to measure real estate obsolescence risk associated with climate transition. The Nordic countries—Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland—have the lowest obsolescence risk, making them best positioned for adapting to net-zero commitments.

Key Findings:

• Lower obsolescence risk in the Nordics stems from factors such as lower carbon intensity, higher renewable energy use, strong renovation rates, and efficient energy consumption.
• Benefits for low-risk locations include more defensive future returns due to lower capital costs from green finance, increased demand for sustainable buildings, reduced leasing risks, and lenient compliance requirements.
• High-risk countries like Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands offer green investment opportunities but will require higher capital expenditure to meet ambitious policies.
• EU policies, including the Renovation Wave Strategy, aim to double renovation rates by 2030 to support decarbonization, which will accelerate obsolescence for non-compliant buildings.

Methodology:

• The index combines four components: macroeconomics (35%), energy (2.5%), real estate (37.5%), and policy (25%), based on data from climate and economic forecasts.
• Upcoming research will integrate renovation costs to assess impacts on risk-adjusted returns.

This index underscores the importance of regulation and investment in aligning real estate with climate goals by 2050.