经合组织OECD2025年全球债务报告挑战性债务市场环境下的融资增长路径英文版178页_3mb

Global Debt Report 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Global Debt Report 2025 provides an in-depth analysis of the state of global debt markets, focusing on both sovereign and corporate borrowing. It highlights the challenges faced by debt markets in a post-pandemic and post-crisis environment, where macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties have intensified. The report also addresses the growing need for debt financing in the context of climate transition, particularly for the energy sector in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).

Main Chapters and Key Points

1. Sovereign Borrowing Outlook

• Focus: Trends in sovereign borrowing among OECD countries.
• Key Points:
  • Global sovereign and corporate borrowing reached USD 25 trillion in 2024, nearly triple the 2007 level.
  • The increase is attributed to the legacy of the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic, where large fiscal support packages were financed via debt markets.
  • Sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio in the OECD rose from 82% (USD 54 trillion) in 2023 to 84% (USD 55 trillion) in 2024, projected to reach 85% (USD 59 trillion) in 2025.
  • Sovereign bond issuance in OECD countries is expected to reach USD 17 trillion in 2025, a record high.
  • Emerging market sovereigns increased their bond issuance from USD 1 trillion in 2007 to over USD 3 trillion in 2024.
  • Outstanding debt in emerging markets reached USD 12 trillion in 2024, up from USD 4 trillion in 2007.
  • Interest costs for much of the outstanding debt are below current market rates, due to the low-interest rate environment of the past.
  • Refinancing risks are rising as long-term interest rates have increased, with real ten-year yields in most OECD countries exceeding 2015-19 averages and 2023 levels.
  • Interest payments to GDP increased in two-thirds of OECD countries in 2024, reaching 3.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2023.

2. Corporate Debt Markets in the Face of Global Uncertainties

• Focus: Corporate debt market dynamics amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Key Points:
  • Corporate debt levels have grown significantly, with global corporate bond debt reaching USD 35 trillion by the end of 2024.
  • Syndicated loans and private credit have also expanded, reaching USD 25 trillion and at least USD 1.6 trillion, respectively.
  • Concentration risks in corporate bond markets are increasing, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for global corporate bond markets reaching high levels in 2024.
  • Market access for certain corporate and emerging market issuers is becoming more challenging, impacting the ability to mobilise funds.
  • The report identifies key issues related to corporate access to finance, financial stability, and market functioning in the face of global uncertainties.

3. Sovereign Debt Markets in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

• Focus: Sovereign debt dynamics in EMDEs amid tighter monetary conditions.
• Key Points:
  • EMDEs have seen a significant rise in bond issuance and outstanding debt, with the latter reaching USD 12 trillion in 2024.
  • Borrowing costs and foreign market access are key concerns for EMDEs.
  • Credit rating developments and refinancing outlooks are discussed, with some countries experiencing rating changes.
  • Debt-for-nature swaps have increased, reflecting efforts to manage debt risks and support environmental goals.

4. Debt Financing for the Climate Transition

• Focus: Financing needs for transitioning to a low-carbon economy, especially in the energy sector.
• Key Points:
  • The report highlights the urgent need for investment in climate-related projects, with global climate transition investments estimated at USD 12 trillion in 2024.
  • Corporate debt is a key financing tool, but the market must evolve to support the climate transition.
  • Sustainable bonds and greenfield FDI are important mechanisms for financing climate projects, particularly in EMDEs.
  • The report outlines different financing scenarios, including public and private sector solutions, to address the cumulative investment gap.

Key Information

• Global Debt Levels: As of 2024, global sovereign and corporate bond debt exceeded USD 100 trillion, with USD 35 trillion in corporate bonds, USD 25 trillion in syndicated loans, and at least USD 1.6 trillion in private credit.
• Interest Rates: Long-term rates reached nearly 20-year highs in several major markets in 2024, increasing refinancing costs and interest payment burdens.
• Debt-to-GDP Ratios: In the OECD, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 82% in 2023 to 84% in 2024, expected to grow further to 85% in 2025.
• Refinancing Risks: With over half of OECD sovereign debt and significant portions of corporate debt having interest costs below current market rates, refinancing risks are a major concern.
• Climate Transition: The energy sector is a central focus, with climate finance and sustainable bond markets being critical for funding the transition to a low-carbon economy.
• Market Volatility: Increased volatility in bond yields and uncertainty have led to a more price-sensitive investor base, affecting market liquidity and borrowing strategies.

Conclusion

The Global Debt Report 2025 underscores the complex challenges facing global debt markets in a post-crisis, post-pandemic world. It calls for policy support, market adaptation, and greater emphasis on sustainable financing to meet the rising investment needs and manage debt risks effectively. The report is a valuable resource for policy makers, financial institutions, and market participants seeking to understand and navigate the evolving debt landscape.