20231114-开源证券-振华股份-603067.SH-公司信息更新报告_Q3业绩环比改善_合金添加剂项目稳步推进_4页_732kb

Summary of Zhencun Shares (603067SH) Investment Report

Investment Rating

Maintain "Buy" for 2023, based on anticipated economic recovery boosting chromium salt performance and performance improvements in Q3 compared to previous quarters.

Financial Highlights (Q3 2023)

• Q3 2023 revenue reached 104.8 billion CNY, representing a 2253% quarter-on-quarter increase.
• Q3 2023 net profit was 9.5 billion CNY, a 412% quarter-on-quarter increase.
• Full-year 2023 outlook: Anticipated revenue of 275.3 billion CNY (68.4% YoY growth), net profit of 28.9 billion CNY (91.7% YoY decline overall, with Q3 showing improvement).
• Current PE ratio is 130x for 2023, 104x for 2024, and 86x for 2025.

Q3 Performance Analysis

• Revenue and net profit surged Q-o-Q due to strong sales in chromium products, despite price declines.
• Key factors: Chromium acid prices fell 20.06% Q-o-Q, impacting margins; however, sales volume increased significantly for chromium oxides and related products.
• Challenges: Vitamin K3 (a co-product) prices dropped 91.3% Q-o-Q, dragging on profits.

Product Details

• Core products include chromium acid, chromium oxides, and co-products like Vitamin K3.
• Sales in Q3: Chromium acid (0.078 MT, +69.57% Q-o-Q), chromium oxides (0.322 MT, +34.17% Q-o-Q), co-products (-4.60% Q-o-Q due to price factors).
• Price trends: Declines in chromium-related products (+20.06%, +27.1%, +7.05% Q-o-Q for key items), partially offset by cost controls in raw materials.

Project Updates

• Alloy Additives Project: Now in trial production phase after relocating to Hubei; aims to diversify product range and enhance competitive edge through full quartz-to-additive integration.

Risks and Valuation

• Risks: Economic downturn, product price volatility, raw material cost fluctuations.
• Valuation: Expected PE ratios 130x (2023), 104x (2024), 86x (2025); projected net profit growth of +34% (2023E-FYOY), +25% (2024E), +9% (2025E).