2025-05-20-Jefferies-爱发科（6728）_业绩回顾修正我们的预测_16页_696kb

报告摘要

Summary of Ulvac Equity Research Report (Jefferies, May 21, 2025)

Company Overview: Ulvac is a Japanese precision equipment company specializing in FPD manufacturing equipment, semiconductor/electronic component manufacturing equipment, components, and general industrial products. It has a significant presence in markets like power semiconductors and battery equipment, with 36% of sales concentrated in China, driven by strong local partnerships and manufacturing facilities.
Recent Financial Results: In the third quarter of fiscal year 6/25 (ended March 2026), Ulvac reported sales of ¥52.9 billion (down 19% YoY) and operating profit of ¥5.4 billion (down 47% YoY), underperforming both internal guidance and market consensus due to order deceleration and weak market conditions in power semiconductors and batteries. Gross profit margin improved to 33.3% on product mix benefits.
Revised Full-Year Guidance for FY6/25: Sales are now projected at ¥250 billion (down ¥25 billion YoY), operating profit at ¥27 billion (down ¥7.5 billion YoY), with a 32% gross profit margin guidance for the full year. Orders are revised to ¥230 billion, a ¥30 billion reduction from prior estimates.
Med-Term Plan Change: Ulvac has halted its original 3-year plan (covering FY6/25 to FY6/26) and introduced a new 6-year "Value-Up" plan focused on semiconductor and electronics growth. This involves business reforms, such as reducing low-margin segments and restructuring production bases, with initial reforms scheduled for FY6/27-28 and expected growth benefits by then, targeting sales of ¥360 billion and a 22% operating profit margin by FY6/31.
Estimate Revision and Price Target: The research firm downgrades the price target to ¥8,500 (from ¥11,000) based on a 15x price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple applied to the estimated ¥568.5 earnings per share (EPS) for FY6/27. The buy recommendation is maintained, with upside potential if business reforms accelerate, but downside risks include slower power semiconductor recovery and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Investment Thesis and Risks: Ulvac's growth hinges on advancements in EUV metal hard masks for logic processes, increased market share in Chinese power implanter sales (80%), expansion into battery and AI server equipment, and improving profit margins. Key risks include dependency on Chinese customers, potential delays in business restructuring, US-China trade tensions affecting Chinese investments, and competition from local competitors.
Valuation: The fair-value price is ¥8,500, reflecting a 15x industry-average P/E, with current trading at a 15x P/E for FY6/25 guidance. The stock is seen as undervalued post-results, barring further market downturns.