2025-06-09-Jefferies-美国寿险_2025年年中回顾我们的预测_10页_414kb

报告摘要

USA Life Insurance Equity Research: Mid-Year 2025 Prediction Review

Overview

This report reviews Jefferies' initial five 2025 predictions for the US life insurance industry. Of these, three were expected to materialize year-to-date (YTD): narrowing P/E gaps between retail and non-retail stocks, a "good" capital problem in the sector, and the absence of a PFG-VOYA merger. The other two predictions—greater focus on value-of-in-force (VIF) and increased use of DB-type mortality pooling solutions—did not fully emerge.

Revisiting Predictions

#1: VIF as the Acronym for 2025

Expected greater emphasis on Value of In-Force (VIF) to differentiate long-term value creation.
Did not materialize broadly; incremental commentary on VIF remained limited to companies like MET and RGA.
Analysis suggests VIF should play a larger role in valuation, especially in higher-for-longer interest rates.

#2: Narrowing Retail Non-Retail P/E Gap

Current average P/Es show modest alignment, with retail slightly higher and non-retail lower (retail P/E at ~8.4x, non-retail at ~6.2x excluding BHF). P/Es have converged modestly due to growth expectations in areas like annuities.
Individual stock data reveals divergence: Retail insurers (e.g., BHF, EQH, LNC) saw average 14% P/E increases, while non-retail saw a slight decrease (e.g., RGA, MET, PFG declined by ~4%). Analyst view is bullish on annuity growth, supporting further P/E convergence.

#3: Good Capital Problem

Growth capital strategies emerged with most covered companies using sidecars or Bermuda entities (14/16 companies covered have such solutions).
Examples include LINK/Bain deal and diversified use of reinsurance tools, reflecting investment in annuity and PRT opportunities for sustained expansion.

#4: Mortality-Pooling Solutions (DB-Type/Focusing)

No significant activity on traditional DB mortality pooling, though activity was expected.
In-plan annuities are gaining attention, as they serve as a form of mortality pooling, focusing on mortality-linked solutions in DC plans (e.g., integrating target date funds with lifetime income).

#5: No PFG-VOYA Merger

PFG and VOYA are unlikely to merge due to differences in DC business models, with PFG emphasizing full-service (FS) plans and VOYA balancing FS and recordkeeping (RK).
VARDS Performance Data: PFG's focus shifted from RK to FS, driving revenue growth with FS-only emphasis, while VOYA maintained a mix dominated by FS. Their diverging strategies reduce merger likelihood.

Valuation and Investment Outlook

Ratings: Analysts rate companies with Buy, Hold, or Underperform, driven by factors like P/E, growth potential, and capital efficiency. For example:
- Buy: AMP, Corebridge Financial (CRBG), EQH, Prudential Financial (PRU).
- Hold: Most others, including BHF, CNO, Lincoln National Corporation (LNC), and PFG.
- ROE and Metrics: High-growth areas like annuities influence valuations, with tools like sidecars used to support capital.

Key Takeaways

Interest rate and annuity pressures remain pivotal; P/E gaps narrow but at an individual stock level, support stems from growth opportunities.
Capital strategies are evolving, with emphasis on accessing external funds, while collaboration between large players is unlikely due to model differences.