2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Stand_98页_1mb

Summary of Romania's Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

The document outlines the results of the fourth review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Romania, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on March 25, 2011, and became effective on March 31, 2011. The SBA is a 24-month program with an initial amount of SDR 3,090.6 million (€3.4 billion, US$5.0 billion, 300 percent of quota), and the fifth tranche of SDR 430 million (€505 million) is expected to be released upon completion of the review. Romania is treating the arrangement as precautionary, and additional funding is provided by the European Union and the World Bank.

Main Views and Key Issues

1. Economic Recovery and Outlook

• Economic Recovery: After two years of recession, Romania experienced growth of 2.5% in 2011, driven by an exceptional agricultural harvest and strong industrial output.
• Growth Outlook: The 2012 growth is expected to be weaker, at 1.5%, due to the adverse effects of the European economic downturn on exports and domestic demand. Staff projections suggest stronger growth (3.5–4%) in 2013–2016.
• Inflation: Inflation declined to a record low of 2.7% in January 2012 and is expected to remain within the central bank's target range of 3% ± 1 percentage point. Core inflation is projected to fall to 2.4%.
• Current Account: The current account deficit is expected to remain below 4.5% of GDP in 2012, with a slight increase to 4.9% in 2013.
• Exchange Rate: The leu depreciated by 2.5% in the second half of 2011, but recent pressures have been muted, and the authorities have not intervened since November 2011.

2. Fiscal Policy

• Deficit Performance: Romania met its 2011 general government cash deficit target (4.2% of GDP) with a margin, below the program ceiling of 4.4% of GDP.
• Revenue and Expenditure: Tax revenue exceeded projections, while EU grants fell short. Current expenditure was controlled, especially on personnel and transfers, due to reduced public employment and lower unemployment benefits.
• Capital Expenditure: Capital spending increased significantly in 2011, particularly in local governments and self-financed institutions. The authorities are aiming to keep the 2012 cash deficit at 1.9% of GDP, with an additional 0.2% in off-budget spending under the PNDI program.
• 2013 Deficit Target: The authorities plan to reduce the cash deficit to 1% of GDP (1.2% including PNDI projects and 1.5% on ESA basis) in 2013, aligning with the EU Fiscal Compact and potential ERM-II entry.

3. Structural Reforms

• Progress: Romania has made progress on structural reforms, including deregulation of electricity prices and SOE restructuring. The government has also met the structural benchmark for deregistering small VAT payers.
• Healthcare Reform: A draft healthcare framework law was withdrawn due to public opposition, but a revised version is expected by mid-2012. The law will aim to improve efficiency, enhance service quality, and increase private sector involvement through supplementary insurance and private management of hospitals.
• Tax Reforms: The clawback tax is being implemented to reduce healthcare costs, and the collection of health contributions for the self-employed will be transferred to the tax authority (ANAF) in July 2012.
• Privatization and Energy Sector Reforms: The government is expected to continue with privatization and regulatory reforms in the energy sector to improve efficiency and attract investment.

4. Financial Sector Policies

• Arrears Reduction: General government arrears decreased to less than 0.2% of GDP at the end of 2011, with local governments and SOEs being the main areas of concern. Measures such as debt-equity swaps and improved enforcement of the 2010 local public finance law are expected to reduce arrears further.
• Contingency Planning: Romania is strengthening its contingency planning and safety net mechanisms to ensure financial sector stability. The authorities are also building up fiscal, financial, and foreign exchange buffers.

5. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• Monetary Policy: The central bank has implemented rate cuts, which have helped reduce domestic yields and improve liquidity conditions.
• Exchange Rate Stability: The leu has been relatively stable since November 2011, with the authorities not intervening in the foreign exchange market.

Key Information

• Program Status: All quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for the fourth review were met.
• Performance Criteria Modifications: Adjustments are proposed to the NFA and fiscal targets.
• Funding Sources: The SBA is supported by the European Union and the World Bank on a precautionary basis.
• Next Review: The authorities are expected to fulfill remaining structural reform steps before the next review.
• Public Commitment: The newly formed government under Prime Minister Ungureanu has reaffirmed its commitment to the program and the policy agenda.

Program Modality and Other Issues

• Precautionary Nature: The SBA is designed as a precautionary arrangement, with the fifth tranche of funding available upon completion of the review.
• External Financing: The government is expected to rely on medium-term external bond placements and multilateral financing as the main sources of external financing in 2012.
• Private Sector Financing: Private sector external financing remains weak, with bank and corporate borrowing skewed towards short-term instruments.

Conclusion

Romania's economic performance under the SBA has been strong, with the authorities meeting all performance criteria and indicative targets. The country is expected to continue with fiscal discipline and structural reforms to ensure stable and sustainable growth. However, challenges remain, particularly in the financial sector and the absorption of EU funds. The government's commitment to the program and its efforts to improve efficiency and reduce arrears are critical to the success of the SBA.