2025-06-15-高盛-全球_高盛经济指标更新_G10工资压力缓解_28页_1mb

Summary of GS Economic Indicators Update: G10 Wage Pressures Soften

Core Content

This report provides an update on Goldman Sachs' (GS) proprietary global economic indicators, highlighting the softening of wage pressures in G10 economies and changes in financial conditions and current activity indicators (CAIs).

Main Points

• Wage Pressures: The GS G10 Wage Tracker indicates continued normalization of wage growth across the G10 economies, suggesting that wage pressures are easing.
• Financial Conditions Index (FCI): The global FCI tightened primarily on equities and short rates, indicating a tightening of financial conditions. The US and UK are expected to see higher growth in 2025, while the UK's growth is expected to be lower in 2026.
• Current Activity Indicator (CAI): The preliminary May CAI for the Global (excluding Russia) fell to +0.2% and rose to +1.8% in Russia. The CAI for the US was +0.3%, while the Euro Area and UK saw declines. Emerging Markets showed strong growth, with China at +3.8%, India at +7.5%, and Brazil at +0.1%.
• Trimmed Core Inflation: GS Trimmed Core Inflation measures are based on trimming the most extreme price changes from core inflation components, providing a more stable inflation signal.
• Wage Trackers: These indicators measure the underlying pace of wage growth across G10 economies, with some countries like Spain and New Zealand showing positive growth.
• Jobs-Workers Gaps: The GS Jobs-Workers Gaps indicate the difference between labor demand and supply, with some countries showing positive gaps suggesting labor shortages.
• Fiscal Impulses: Top-down fiscal impulses measure the impact of fiscal policy on real GDP growth, with forecasts for the US, Euro Area, China, and UK indicating potential growth trajectories.
• Short-Run Utilization Scores: These scores, based on labor and industrial sector indicators, show varying degrees of underutilization or overutilization of economic capacity, with some countries like Italy and Spain showing strong utilization.

Key Information

• Methodology: The CAIs are GDP-weighted averages of real activity indicators, incorporating forecasted values for missing data. The FCI is a market FX-weighted average of financial conditions across major economies.
• Surprise Index: The MAP Surprise Index highlights the importance and strength of economic indicators relative to consensus expectations.
• Forecast Comparisons: GS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 inflation and GDP growth are compared with those of other forecasters, showing differences in growth expectations.
• Disclosure: The report includes regulatory disclosures for various jurisdictions, emphasizing that the information is not intended as personalized investment advice and that analysts are prohibited from owning securities in their area of coverage.

Summary of Data Highlights

Key Charts and Exhibits

• Exhibit 1: GS G10 Wage Tracker indicates normalization of wage growth.
• Exhibit 4: CAI data for May shows mixed trends, with some countries experiencing growth and others decline.
• Exhibit 5: Global CAI remains below potential, indicating subdued economic activity.
• Exhibit 16-18: CAI aggregates and heatmaps for various regions and countries.
• Exhibit 22-23: Sequential wage trackers and jobs-workers gaps.
• Exhibit 28-29: Short-run utilization scores and their implications for economic capacity.
• Exhibit 30-33: GS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 inflation and GDP growth compared with consensus.

Conclusion

The report outlines a range of economic indicators, showing a general softening of wage pressures and mixed trends in financial conditions and economic activity across G10 and emerging markets. GS forecasts suggest potential growth in the US and other economies, while the UK and Japan show more subdued growth. The report also includes detailed methodology notes and regulatory disclosures to ensure transparency and compliance.