英文_高盛_美国高盛经济指标更新（林德尔斯）_12页_494kb

报告摘要

USA: GS Economic Indicators Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an update on Goldman Sachs (GS) proprietary economic indicators for the United States, along with related financial data and regulatory disclosures. The key indicators and their latest movements are summarized below.

Key Economic Indicators

1. GS US Financial Conditions Index (FCI)

Nominal FCI: Eased by 22.5 basis points (bps) to 99.21 over the last week.
Real FCI: Eased by 23.9 bps to 98.81.
Reason for Change: The decline was primarily driven by higher equity prices.

2. US GDP Forecast

Q2 GDP Forecast: Revised downward to +2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized).

3. US MAP Index of Economic Surprises

Index Value: Declined on net to -0.36, indicating a mixed outlook on economic performance.

4. Current Activity Indicator (May)

Preliminary Value: +0.6% (compared to -0.3% in April).
Description: The first principal component of 37 key weekly and monthly US economic indicators.

5. Capex Tracker

The document includes a visual representation of capital expenditure trends, though no specific data is provided in the text.

6. Labor Market Tracker

Visual data is provided, but no detailed numbers or commentary are included in the text.

7. Manufacturing Survey Tracker

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

8. Non-Manufacturing Survey Tracker

Source: ISM, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

9. Wage Tracker

Source: Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

10. Monthly Wage Surveys

Average: Computed from multiple surveys (NFIB, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, NY Fed, Kansas City Fed).
Adjustment: Adjusted for changes in labor force composition between 2020Q1 and 2021Q4.

11. Core Inflation Tracker

Source: Department of Commerce, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

12. GS Social Media Economic Sentiment Index

Source: University of Michigan, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Key Views and Analysis

The economic indicators suggest a modest improvement in financial conditions, largely due to rising equity prices.
The Q2 GDP forecast has been reduced, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
The economic surprises index indicates a net negative surprise, suggesting that actual performance has not met expectations.
The Current Activity Indicator has improved, showing a slight positive trend in economic activity.
The labor market and wage data are tracked but not elaborated upon in the text.
Inflation data is monitored, but no specific numbers or trends are detailed.

Regulatory and Disclosure Information

The report is authored by GS analysts including Jan Hatzius, Alec Phillips, David Mericle, Ronnie Walker, Manuel Abecasis, Elsie Peng, and Jessica Rindels.
The views expressed in the report reflect the personal opinions of the analysts and are not influenced by firm business or client relationships.
The report includes various regulatory disclosures for different jurisdictions, including:
- Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd is not an authorized deposit-taking institution and the research is for "wholesale clients" only.
- Brazil: Disclosure information is available online, and the primary analyst is the first named unless otherwise stated.
- Canada: The research is not an offer to sell or solicit in Canada; clients should contact Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. for trading.
- Hong Kong: Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. is responsible for the research and accepts legal responsibility.
- India: Research is for professional investors, and the firm may beneficially own 1% or more of the subject securities.
- Japan: GS Japan is a registered financial instrument dealer, and sales are subject to commission and consumption tax.
- New Zealand: The research is for "wholesale clients" only.
- Russia: Research is not a personalized investment recommendation and does not constitute product promotion.
- Singapore: Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
- Taiwan: The material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission.
- United Kingdom: Retail clients should refer to prior research and risk warnings.
- European Union and UK: Disclosure information is available at the specified policy link, covering conflicts of interest and regulatory standards.

Distribution and Access

The research is produced and distributed globally by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Distribution entities include:
- Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd
- Brazil: Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Titulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.
- Canada: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
- Hong Kong: Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
- India: Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.
- Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
- Republic of Korea: Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch
- New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited
- Russia: OOO Goldman Sachs
- Singapore: Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte.
- United States: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
- UK and EEA: Goldman Sachs International (GSI) is authorized and regulated by the FCA and PRA.

General Disclosures

The research is based on public information and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.
Views and forecasts may change without prior notice.
The report does not provide analysis of individual companies but focuses on investment themes.
No investment decisions should be made solely based on this report; clients are advised to seek professional advice.
The report is not an offer to sell or solicit any security and is intended for internal clients only.
Clients may receive different levels of service based on their relationship with GS.
No unauthorized use or redistribution of the data is permitted without express written consent.

Disclaimer

All data and analysis are subject to change.
Goldman Sachs assumes no responsibility for investment decisions made based on this report.
The information is for internal clients only and is not intended for public dissemination.

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