2025-06-12-花旗集团-日本经济指标预测_未来一周_10页_203kb

Japan Economic Indicator Forecasts Summary

Next Week Focus: No change in policy rates expected; attention on BoJ's JGB purchase plans. JGB purchases are projected to continue at current pace through CY26 Q1 and then halved in Q2.

1. Nationwide CPI and Core CPI (Excluding Fresh Food)

• Date: June 18 (Wednesday)
• Forecasts:
  • Nationwide CPI: +3.6% YoY (up from +3.5% YoY in April, +3.2% YoY for excluding fresh food and energy, up from +v3.0% YoY).
  • Energy contribution narrowed to +0.66ppt (base effect and falling prices).
• Analysis: Food price hikes likely to persist through summer (prices leveled off for rice, but other food items and labor costs possibly affecting services).

2. Customs-Clearance Trade Balance

• Date: June 18 (Wednesday)
• Forecasts:
  • Unadjusted Deficit: ¥894.9bn (-¥115.6 bn previously).
  • Adjusted Deficit: ¥168.5bn (-¥408.9 bn previously).
• Analysis: Deficit narrowed due to faster decline in imports than exports; US exports less affected due to stable selling prices by automakers.

3. Private-Sector Machinery Orders

• Date: June 18 (Wednesday)
• Forecasts:
  • MoM Change (excluding ships and power): -7.9% (jumped +13.0% in March).
  • YoY Change: +5.8% YoY (beat prior 8.4% YoY estimate).
• Analysis: Remain above Q1 average (+1.0% above Q1 avg +3.9% QoQ). US tariffs and potential profit declines could weaken future investment.

Calendar Highlights (June 16 - July 4)

Key dates featuring BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (June 16-17), Reuters Tankan (June 18) and various upcoming data releases scheduled for June and July.

Appendix Notes

Includes Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures, Affiliate Information, and the proportion of Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations mix (Q1 2025: Buy 33%, Hold 44%, Sell 23%). Note conflicts of interest, client regulations, and data sources.

**Key Takeaway:** The report highlights rising inflationary pressures due to food, energy, and service factors, a narrowing trade deficit suggesting minor import/ export shifts, and persistent machinery orders, but notes risks from tariffs and higher uncertainty.