20250908-招银国际-黑芝麻智能-02533.HK-Robust_1H25_growth_amid_margin_pressure_Maintain_+ve_long-term_outlook_5页_1000kb

Black Sesame (2533 HK) Summary

Core Content

Black Sesame, a Chinese semiconductor company, reported its first-half 2025 (1H25) results, showcasing robust revenue growth despite margin pressures. The company is positioned in the automotive and robotics sectors, focusing on assisted driving solutions and SoC-based technologies.

Main Points

• Revenue Growth:

  • 1H25 revenue reached RMB253 million, a 40% YoY increase.
  • Assisted driving solutions (94% of total sales) grew 42% YoY to RMB237 million, driven by increased sales volume of A1000 SoCs.
  • The company expects 71% / 59% YoY revenue growth for 2025/26E, supported by rising adoption of ADAS/AD technologies and enhanced chip performance.

• Gross Margin (GPM):

  • 1H25 GPM dropped to 24.8%, down from 50% / 35.6% in 1H/2H24, due to an unfavorable product mix and upfront investments.
  • Intelligent Imaging segment maintained a high GPM of 82.4%, though its contribution to revenue was small.
  • Full-year GPM is forecasted at 33% / 39% for 2025/26E, with a gradual recovery expected in 2H25 due to higher-margin algorithm-based revenue and increased chip shipment volume.

• Net Loss:

  • The company recorded an IFRS net loss of RMB762 million in 1H25.
  • On a non-IFRS basis, the net loss narrowed to RMB549 million, down from RMB602 million / RMB702 million in 1H/2H24, attributed to cost control in G&A and improved R&D efficiency.

• Valuation and Target Price:

  • The target price is HK$28, up from HK$28.20.
  • The P/E multiple is based on 22.5x 2030E P/E, with a 25% discount applied to sector leader Horizon Robotics.
  • The current price is HK$18.40, implying a 52.2% upside to the new target price.

• Key Growth Drivers:

  • SoC-based solutions are the primary growth driver, with projected 104% / 62% YoY growth in 2025/26E.
  • Upcoming volume production of C1200 for cross-domain computing and A2000 series for L3/L4 deployment in 2026E is expected to support this growth.

• Robotics Segment:

  • The company has secured partnerships for humanoid robots using A2000 (perception) and C1200 (motion control) chips.
  • Management projects RMB10 million in robotics revenue for 2025E, with a potential 5-10x YoY growth in 2026E due to modular chip designs and scalable adoption.

Key Financial Metrics

Earnings Forecast and Valuation

• Earnings Revisions:

  • CMBI estimates vs. BBG consensus show a -2% / -9% / -3% difference in revenue growth for 2025/27E.
  • Gross profit and net profit forecasts are also adjusted, with CMBI estimates showing lower gross profit and higher net profit in 2025E compared to the old estimates.

• Valuation Table:

Risk Factors

• Industry Adoption: Potential slowdown in the adoption of ADAS/AD solutions.
• Competition: Intensified competition in the semiconductor and automotive tech sectors.
• Geopolitical Risks: Risks related to chip fabrication and global supply chains.

Analyst Recommendation

• Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$28.
• The higher valuation multiple reflects the company's diversification into the high-growth robotic segment and its meaningful overseas order wins that validate its competitive edge and global scalability.

Stock Data

Share Performance

Peer Comparison (Selected)

Analyst Certification and Disclosures

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect personal views and that there are no conflicts of interest.
• CMBIGM or its affiliates have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in this report.
• The report is not investment advice and is subject to change without notice.

Summary

Black Sesame is experiencing strong revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by demand for its assisted driving solutions. Despite margin pressures, the company is expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year. The robotics segment is emerging as a second growth engine, with significant potential for expansion. Analysts maintain a BUY rating with a target price of HK$28, reflecting optimism about its long-term prospects and diversification into high-growth areas.