2025-09-01-美联储-劳动力市场动态_货币政策权衡和追求最大就业的短缺方法（英）页_21页_631kb

Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment

Overview

This paper assesses the implications of adopting a "shortfalls" approach to pursuing maximum employment, comparing it with a "deviations" approach using model-based simulations. The shift to shortfalls aligns with the Federal Reserve's 2019–20 framework review, aiming to mitigate employment shortfalls rather than deviations from its maximum level, even when inflation is stable.

Key Findings

• Inflationary Pressures: Shortfalls rules generate inflation due to forward-looking behavior, as households and firms expect more accommodative policy, leading to higher average inflation across business cycles, independent of shock types.
• Labor Market Effects: The average impact on employment is limited due to offsetting forces: a direct expansionary effect from reduced policy leanings, and an indirect contractionary effect from expectations of higher inflation.
• Policy Tradeoffs and Responses: Monet policy can offset elevated inflation by aggressively leaning against inflation deviations, anchoring inflation expectations, and reducing effective lower bound risks. This approach may also be appropriate for managing risks from potential nonlinearities in the Phillips curve.

Policy Implications

• Shortfalls rules require stronger inflation targeting to mitigate inflationary bias without makeup strategies.
• While this approach supports labor markets under steady conditions, it increases risks from demand shocks and ELB episodes, necessitating careful risk management.
• Uncertainty over labor market slack measurement and hysteresis effects remains a challenge, with implications for policy effectiveness.

Caveats and Open Questions

• Theoretical work is nascent, with limited exploration of real-world data, ELB interactions, and behavioral assumptions.
• Further research is needed to quantify impacts under various Phillips curve slopes and to integrate shortfalls with other policy tools, such as flexible average inflation targeting.

Conclusion

The shortfalls approach may provide a framework for achieving maximum employment with inflation anchored, but it risks higher average inflation and greater volatility without symmetric policy leans. Policymakers must weigh these tradeoffs, emphasizing robust inflation responses and acknowledging model limitations.