2018全球航空航天及国防行业展望_28页_2mb

2018 Global Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook Summary

Core Content

The global aerospace and defense (A&D) industry is on a solid path for profitable growth in 2018, with Deloitte forecasting a revenue increase of approximately 4.1%. This growth is expected to be driven by several factors, including the recovery of global GDP, stable commodity prices, and rising demand for commercial aircraft, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Latin America regions. Additionally, increased defense spending due to heightened global security threats is expected to support the growth of the defense sector.

Main Points

Commercial Aircraft Sector Outlook

• Revenue Growth: The commercial aircraft sector is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2018, following a subdued 2.1% growth in 2017.
• Production Increase: Aircraft manufacturers are ramping up production, with nearly 100 additional aircraft expected to be produced in 2018 compared to 2017.
• Demand Drivers: Passenger travel demand has been increasing at a CAGR of 5.1% over the last 10 years, with the Asia-Pacific region leading growth. The middle class population in the region is expected to grow to 65% by 2030, further boosting demand.
• Order Backlog: The global commercial aircraft backlog stood at 14,215 units at the end of 2017, representing nine and a half years of current production levels.
• Production Trends: Production levels are expected to increase by 25% over the next decade, with a 7% increase in 2018 compared to 2017.
• Narrow Body Aircraft: Narrow body aircraft are expected to dominate production, with Boeing and Airbus increasing their production rates.
• Challenges: Demand for widebody aircraft is expected to soften due to overcapacity, deferred upgrades, and low oil prices making older aircraft more economical.
• New Entrants: China and Russia are emerging as new players in commercial aircraft manufacturing, with COMAC's C919 program showing promise, though facing certification and operational challenges.

Defense Sector Outlook

• Revenue Growth: The defense sector is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2018, with global defense spending expected to reach US$2 trillion by 2022 at a CAGR of 3.0%.
• Security Threats: Rising threats such as cyber-attacks, hybrid warfare, and geopolitical tensions are driving defense spending.
• US Defense Budget: The US defense budget is expected to return to growth, with FY2019 budget US$79 billion higher than FY2018, signaling a shift toward modernization and recapitalization.
• Regional Spending: Countries like India, China, and Japan are increasing their defense budgets, while Middle Eastern countries are facing budget constraints due to lower oil prices.
• Key Defense Products: Focus areas include armored ground vehicles, ground attack munitions, intelligence and surveillance systems, cyber protections, and maritime patrol assets.
• M&A Activity: Increased M&A is expected, especially in the US and Europe, driven by cost reduction and technology acquisition needs.

Key Trends and Outlook

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Activity

• M&A deal value has more than doubled in the past year.
• US defense sector may see accelerated M&A due to increased budget certainty.
• Large prime contractors are likely to acquire small-to-mid-sized firms to gain access to new technologies and markets.
• European defense sector is unlikely to see large M&A deals, but joint ventures (JVs) may be pursued to strengthen market positions.

Shareholder Returns

• The A&D industry is expected to deliver strong shareholder returns in 2018.
• Operating profits are projected to increase by 18.5% in the commercial aircraft sector and 10.2% in the defense sector.

Regional Perspectives

Technology and Efficiency

• Investment in technology is critical for A&D companies to remain competitive.
• Advanced manufacturing technologies will be necessary to enhance productivity and efficiency.
• Supply chain strengthening and effective program management are also key challenges for the industry.

Financial Performance

• 2017 Financial Highlights:
  • Commercial aircraft sector saw 2.1% revenue growth and 18.5% operating profit increase.
  • Defense sector experienced 3.6% revenue growth and 10.2% operating profit increase.
• 2018 Projections:
  • US A&D industry is expected to see 3.7% revenue growth and 9.9% operating profit increase.
  • European A&D industry is projected to grow by 4.9% in revenue and 22.3% in operating earnings.

Conclusion

The global aerospace and defense industry is poised for sustained growth in 2018, driven by increased demand for commercial aircraft, rising defense spending, and strategic M&A activity. While regional differences exist in terms of budget allocation and growth trajectories, the industry as a whole is expected to benefit from technological advancements, increased production rates, and global security concerns.