2017年-数据局_德勤：2017全球航空航天及国防行业展望_28页_814kb

2017 Global Aerospace and Defense Sector Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2017 global aerospace and defense (A&D) sector is expected to experience stronger growth, with Deloitte forecasting a revenue increase of approximately 2.0%. This follows years of modest but positive growth, and the outlook is shaped by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

Main Points

Commercial Aerospace Sub-sector Outlook

• Revenue growth: Expected to increase by 0.3% in 2017, driven by a slight recovery in aircraft production after a slowdown in 2016.
• Production increase: Anticipated to produce 1,456 commercial aircraft in 2017, a 7.1% increase from 2016.
• Demand drivers: Strong global passenger travel demand, especially in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, and lower fuel costs are key factors.
• Backlog: The commercial aircraft backlog is at an all-time high of ~13,500 units, representing more than nine and a half years of production.
• Trends and challenges:
  • New entrants from regions like China and Russia are entering the market.
  • The supply chain is under pressure to meet increasing demands for capacity, quality, and cost efficiency.
  • Twin-aisle aircraft may face weaker demand due to low fuel prices and a surplus of second-hand aircraft.
  • Boeing and Airbus are increasing production rates for models like the 737 and A320neo, while reducing output for the A380 and possibly the 747-8.

Defense Sub-sector Outlook

• Revenue growth: Expected to grow by 3.2% in 2017, fueled by US defense budget increases and rising defense spending in other regions.
• US defense spending:
  • Increased by US$20.0 billion in FY2016 and US$9.0 billion in FY2017, with a focus on military modernization.
  • The new US administration is expected to boost defense spending, leading to more ships, aircraft, and operational assets.
• Global demand:
  • Middle East, Eastern Europe, North Korea, and the East and South China Seas are seeing increased defense spending.
  • Countries such as India, China, and the UAE are increasing their purchases of next-generation military equipment.
• Defense exports:
  • The US is a major exporter, but recent currency fluctuations and Export-Import Bank restrictions have slightly dampened export growth.
  • US FMS is expected to remain strong due to increased defense spending in the Middle East and India.

Key Trends and Challenges

• Global GDP stability and lower commodity prices, especially crude oil, are supporting commercial aerospace growth.
• Passenger traffic has grown at a CAGR of 4.7% over the last decade, with RPKs increasing significantly.
• Airfares have decreased by 47.0% (CPI-adjusted) since 1990, increasing travel demand.
• A&D sector efficiency:
  • The US A&D sector remains more efficient than the rest of the world, with operating earnings per employee at US$41,218 in 2015, compared to US$23,364 for the rest of the world.
  • US operating margin was 11.6% in 2015, compared to 8.5% for European companies.
• One-time charges:
  • Increased significantly in 2015 to US$10.3 billion.
  • Expected to continue in 2017 due to Brexit, currency fluctuations, and program delays.
• Technological advancements:
  • Additive manufacturing (AM) is being adopted for complex parts and customized components, leading to improved fuel efficiency and cost savings.
  • Digital innovations such as machine learning, smart automation, and blockchain are shaping the future of the A&D sector.

Regional Outlook

• Asia-Pacific and Middle East:
  • Expected to be key growth regions for both commercial aerospace and defense due to increased wealth and security concerns.
  • Passenger traffic has grown significantly in these regions.
• Europe:
  • A&D sector revenue is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2017, with operating earnings rising by 9.3%.
• Americas:
  • US A&D sector revenue is expected to grow by 1.7%, with operating profits increasing by 12.7%.
  • US defense spending has been a major driver of growth in this region.

Strategic Growth Opportunities

• Foreign military sales (FMS):
  • US FMS is expected to reach US$41.8 billion in FY2017, driven by Middle East and India.
  • NATO's 2% GDP spending target is prompting European defense spending to rise.
• Acquisitions and joint ventures:
  • Companies are using acquisitions and joint ventures to access new markets, reduce competition, and share risks and costs.
  • Examples include Boeing and Tata Advanced Systems and Raytheon and UAE.
• Supply chain transformation:
  • The A&D supply chain is expected to focus on cost reduction, product innovation, and quicker response times.
  • This may lead to further industry consolidation as smaller firms may struggle to meet the increased financial and operational demands.

Conclusion

The global A&D sector is poised for moderate growth in 2017, with commercial aerospace seeing marginal increases and defense experiencing stronger growth due to increased defense budgets and global security concerns. The sector faces challenges in terms of cost pressures, technological adaptation, and market competition, especially from new global entrants. However, technological innovation, strategic acquisitions, and increased foreign military sales present key growth avenues for A&D companies.