2018年-德勤中国_2018全球航空航天及国防行业展望_28页_2mb

2018 Global Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Global Aerospace and Defense (A&D) industry outlook highlights a recovery in growth after a subdued year in 2017. Deloitte forecasts a 4.1% increase in global A&D industry revenues in 2018, with the commercial aircraft sector expected to grow by 4.8% and the defense sector by 3.6%. The outlook also discusses regional trends, M&A activity, and the importance of technological investment for future growth.

Main Points

1. Global A&D Industry Growth

• Revenue Growth: Deloitte predicts a 4.1% growth in global A&D industry revenue in 2018, following a 2.1% growth in 2017.
• Drivers of Growth: Recovery in global GDP, stable commodity prices, and rising passenger travel demand, especially in Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Latin America.
• Commercial Aircraft Production: Nearly 100 additional aircraft are expected to be produced in 2018, with a focus on narrow-body aircraft. Airbus and Boeing are increasing production rates.
• Defense Spending: Global defense spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 3.0% from 2017 to 2022, reaching over $2 trillion by 2022.

2. Commercial Aircraft Sector Outlook

• Passenger Traffic Growth: Travel demand (RPKs) grew at a CAGR of 5.1% over the past decade, with Asia-Pacific expected to drive long-term growth.
• Order Backlog: As of December 2017, the commercial aircraft backlog stood at 14,215 units, representing nine and a half years of current production.
• Future Production: Over the next 20 years, global demand for new commercial aircraft is estimated to be 36,780 units (excluding regional jets), with production expected to grow by 25% over the next decade.
• Challenges: Widebody aircraft demand is expected to soften due to overcapacity and the efficiency of older models. New entrants like China and Russia face challenges in gaining orders and certifications.

3. Defense Sector Outlook

• Security Threats: Rising global security threats, including cyber-attacks, hybrid warfare, and regional conflicts, are driving defense spending.
• US Defense Budget: The US DoD budget is expected to increase, with a projected $79 billion for FY2019, leading to growth in revenues and operating income for top defense companies.
• Global Trends: Other major powers like India, China, and Japan are also increasing defense budgets to address security concerns.
• Focus Areas: Demand for armored vehicles, ground attack munitions, cyber protections, and maritime assets is expected to remain strong.

4. Regional Perspectives

5. M&A Activity

• Increased Activity: M&A activity in the A&D industry has more than doubled in the past year.
• Drivers: OEMs are pushing suppliers to reduce costs and increase production rates, leading to potential acquisitions of small-to-mid-sized firms.
• Regional Outlook: US defense sector may see more M&A activity due to increased budget certainty. European M&A is unlikely to be large, but joint ventures may be pursued to strengthen market positions.

6. Shareholder Returns and Financial Performance

• Operating Profits: The commercial aircraft sector is expected to see an 18.5% increase in operating profits, while the defense sector is projected to grow by 10.2%.
• US Performance: US A&D industry revenue is projected to rise 3.7%, with a 9.9% increase in operating profits.
• Europe: European A&D industry revenue is expected to grow 4.9%, with operating earnings increasing by 22.3%.

Key Information

• Commercial Aircraft Growth: Expected to increase by 7% in 2018, with a 24.4% increase compared to five years ago.
• Passenger Growth: Passenger traffic is expected to grow at an AAGR of 4.7% over the next 20 years.
• Technology Investment: Crucial for A&D companies to maintain efficiency and competitiveness in the future.
• Cyber Threats: Increasing global risks of cyber-attacks, especially from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
• Defense Modernization: Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Japan are investing in modernizing their military capabilities.
• Brexit Impact: Uncertainty surrounding Brexit may affect the UK A&D industry's productivity and profitability.

Conclusion

The global A&D industry is on a solid profitable growth path in 2018, driven by increasing demand in both commercial and defense sectors. The commercial aircraft sector is expected to see robust production and revenue growth, while the defense sector benefits from rising global security threats and increased military spending. Regional dynamics, including India's expansion, China's focus on self-reliance, and the impact of Brexit on the UK, will shape the industry's future. M&A activity and technological investment are also key factors in sustaining growth and competitiveness.