2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Rwanda_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Extension_and_Request_for_an_Arrangement_Under_the_Standby_Credit_Faciltity_84页_1mb

Rwanda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Extension

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted the fifth review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and approved an 18-month Standby Credit Facility (SCF) arrangement for Rwanda. This arrangement, valued at SDR 144.18 million (approximately US$204 million or 90 percent of Rwanda's quota), aims to support the country's efforts to address growing external imbalances and bolster its reserves. The program also includes the extension of the PSI up to the end of 2017, allowing Rwanda to continue its medium-term engagement with the Fund.

Key Documents Included

• Press Release: Announced the approval of the SCF and the fifth PSI review.
• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF team, detailing economic developments and policy discussions with Rwanda officials.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Prepared by the IMF and World Bank.
• Staff Supplement: Updated information on recent developments.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Summarized the main findings and policy recommendations.

Main Points and Findings

Economic Performance in 2015

• Real GDP growth was strong at 6.9%, driven by construction and services activity.
• Inflation increased to 4.5% by the end of 2015, mainly due to food and utility price hikes.
• Mining exports fell by nearly 40%, significantly impacting foreign exchange earnings, despite a 2/3 offset from lower fuel prices.

External Imbalances

• The current account deficit worsened from 16.4% in 2014 to 18.1% in 2015.
• The Rwandan franc depreciated by 7.5% against the US dollar in 2015, exacerbated by foreign exchange shortages.
• The depreciation helped reduce imports slightly, but further adjustment was needed.

Policy Adjustments

• Exchange rate flexibility is the primary tool for addressing external imbalances.
• Fiscal and monetary tightening is expected to reduce import demand and support reserve levels.
• The authorities are accelerating export promotion and import substitution policies, focusing on diversifying exports and reducing reliance on imports.

Program Objectives

• The SCF and PSI aim to support sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and improve macroeconomic resilience.
• The program includes measures to enhance domestic revenue collection, financial sector development, and fiscal sustainability.

Key Indicators (2014–2018)

Key Issues and Risks

• External shocks in 2015, including a drop in mining exports and reduced remittances, significantly impacted the balance of payments.
• The "No Adjustment" baseline scenario indicates that without policy changes, reserves would have become dangerously low by 2017.
• The program risks include potential further shocks to commodity prices or regional developments, which could require additional adjustments.
• Structural reforms are ongoing, including improving the tax system and public reporting, but progress has been slower than anticipated.

Policy Discussions

• The exchange rate remains the main adjustment tool, supported by fiscal and monetary tightening.
• The government has introduced measures to diversify exports and promote domestic production.
• Private sector engagement is being strengthened through initiatives like the Export Growth Facility (EGF), which includes investment catalysts, matching grants, and export guarantees.
• Trade agreements with regional partners, such as the EAC, are being pursued to reduce trade costs and improve market access.

Program Modality and Financing

• The SCF arrangement provides 90% of Rwanda's quota, with a first disbursement of US$102 million.
• The PSI extension will last until the end of 2017, supporting Rwanda's medium-term objectives.
• The program aims to maintain GDP growth at around 6% in 2016 and 2017, while improving external sustainability and fiscal stability.

Conclusion

The IMF's support is crucial for Rwanda to manage external imbalances and sustain economic growth. The program includes a mix of short-term financing and long-term policy reforms, with the goal of improving the country's resilience to future economic shocks. Continued collaboration with the Fund and implementation of structural reforms are essential for achieving these objectives.