2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_Third_Review_Under_the_Two_33页_811kb

Morocco: Third Review Under the Two-Year Precautionary and Liquidity Line

Core Content Summary

This document outlines the third review under the two-year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement for Morocco, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board in August 2012 for SDR 4.1 billion (about US$6.2 billion). The review took place in late 2013 and early 2014, with the staff report finalized on January 24, 2014. The report assesses Morocco's economic performance, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and progress on structural reforms.

Main Points

• Overall Performance:
  Morocco's macroeconomic performance improved in 2013 after a difficult 2012. The country managed to reduce fiscal and external deficits and saw growth rebound, particularly in the primary sector. Growth in 2014 is projected to reach about 4%, but the economy remains vulnerable to international conditions.

• Fiscal Policy:

  • The fiscal deficit, including grants, was reduced to 5.5% of GDP in 2013, slightly below the indicative target due to higher-than-programmed investment spending.
  • The 2014 budget targets a further reduction to 4.9% of GDP, primarily through continued subsidy cuts and increased fiscal discipline.
  • Key reforms include the elimination of subsidies on super and industrial fuel, and a reduction in diesel subsidies.
  • The new organic budget law (OBL) aims to strengthen fiscal transparency and accountability, with pilot programs in four ministries.

• External Position:

  • The current account deficit excluding grants improved to about 8% of GDP in 2013.
  • Reserves remained stable at 88% of the Fund's reserve metric for emerging markets, supported by FDI inflows and development assistance.
  • Morocco has reconfirmed market access by raising $750 million in May 2013, and the external debt remains sustainable.

• Monetary Policy:

  • Inflation has remained low and stable, averaging 1.7% over the past decade.
  • The central bank, Bank-al-Maghrib (BAM), has effectively anchored inflation expectations under the exchange rate peg.
  • The authorities are preparing for a potential move towards a more flexible exchange rate regime, which would support external sustainability.

• Financial Sector:

  • The financial sector remains sound, with improved capital adequacy ratios (Tier 1: 10.6%, regulatory capital: 13.1%) as of June 2013.
  • Nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased slightly to 5.8% of total loans, reflecting economic slowdown.
  • BAM is enhancing supervision and incorporating Basel III standards, with a planned Financial Sector Assessment (FSAP) update in late 2014.

• Data Adequacy:

  • Morocco meets the PLL requirements for data transparency and integrity, adhering to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
  • Despite fiscal overruns in 2012, the reporting of fiscal data has not been questioned.

• Program Progress:

  • The program remains broadly on track, with Morocco continuing to meet PLL qualification criteria.
  • The country is performing well in three out of five areas (financial sector, monetary policy, data adequacy) and not substantially underperforming in the other two (fiscal policy, external position).
  • The staff recommends the completion of the third review under the PLL.

Key Recommendations

• Strengthen the draft organic budget law to improve fiscal discipline, coverage, and expenditure control.
• Continue implementing structural reforms to reduce vulnerabilities and boost competitiveness.
• Maintain technical measures to control public investment and wage spending, especially in the context of ongoing reforms.
• Formalize good governance practices and safeguards in the central bank law to ensure independence and transparency.

Conclusion

Morocco's economic performance has shown improvement, and the country continues to meet the criteria for the PLL. The staff recommends completing the third review, as the program remains on track and the authorities are making progress on structural reforms. Continued reform efforts are crucial to ensuring long-term fiscal and external sustainability.