IMF-通过公共投资加强基里巴斯的韧性_基里巴斯（英）-2025.7_15页_1mb

Summary: Strengthening Resilience in Kiribati with Public Investment

Kiribati, a low-lying island nation, faces existential risks from rising sea levels and is highly vulnerable to natural hazards like flooding and storms. This IMF report emphasizes the critical need for substantial public investment in climate-resilient infrastructure to safeguard long-term prosperity.

Key Findings

• Massive Investment Needs: Annual adaptation investment requirements reach 25% of GDP in the long run, posing challenges to fiscal sustainability.
• Focused Approach Needed: To achieve moderate resilience, a balanced approach combining fiscal sustainability, high-return investments (climate-resilient infrastructure), and crowding in private investment is essential.
• Debt Sustainability Risk: High levels of adaptation investment financed solely via borrowing risk threatening debt sustainability beyond 2050, even with medium-term consolidation measures.
• Public Investment Efficiency: The efficiency gap is the critical lever – reforms boosting efficiency (80%+) save fiscal space and generate higher economic gains from public spending.

Policy Recommendations

1. Fiscal Prudence: Implement a revenue-neutral VAT rate raise and rationalize subsidies to support consolidation without harming growth.
2. Prioritize Adaptation: Utilize existing RERF resources and concessional debt for needed adaptation projects. Load the remaining finance needs onto a highly efficient PFM system.
3. Build Efficiency: Undertake comprehensive reforms to data management, planning & selection, procurement, funding maintenance costs, asset registries, utilities' tariff setting, and SOE governance.
4. Capacity Building: Invest strategically in high-demand skills and leverage knowledge from development partners. Focus education funding towards vocational training priorities like infrastructure support.

Infrastructure Modeling Insights

• Moderate resilience investment (25% adaptation/GDP) reduces GDP losses in disasters and offers manageable debt dynamics.
• Climate-resilient infrastructure crowds in private investment due to reduced risk profiles.
• Efficiency reforms are crucial; efficient investments (approx. 50% effectiveness relative to best LIDC peers) reduce long-term debt-to-GDP even further and lower long-term debt levels.

*Note:* The summary assumes "美元中国" is an input error and disregard corresponding section components based on standard practice for summarizing reports like this one.