IMF-爱尔兰加强财政框架的考虑（英）-2025.7_36页_2mb

Ireland’s fiscal framework needs strengthening to ensure long-term sustainability, given its heavy reliance on corporate income tax (CIT) from multinational enterprises (MNEs), exposing it to significant revenue risks. The IMF report recommends two key measures: establishing a prudent medium-term debt anchor and implementing expenditure ceilings to guide annual budget decisions.

First, the debt anchor is calibrated based on CIT revenue volatility, modeled through both FDI and firm-specific risks, to limit the probability of debt exceeding the EU benchmark of 60% of GDP. Using net debt to GNI* (a measure reflecting domestic economic activity) as a denominator, an anchor at 40% offers a comfortable buffer.

Second, an expenditure rule (multi-year ceilings) should be operationalized, informed by cyclical conditions and linked to the debt anchor. This rule should ideally cover all government institutions and incorporate automatic stabilizers. Combined with a fiscal reaction function (FRF) to align spending with economic cycles and debt targets, this framework would stabilize debt and ensure policy credibility.

The expenditure path should prioritize public investment, avoiding exclusion of it from ceilings unless strictly necessary for meeting stable debt levels. Steps include an escape clause for exceptional circumstances, independent oversight by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, and periodic review to adjust rules as needed.

Overall, the framework must be credible and flexible, with FDI and firm risks quantified through statistical models, and revenue shocks managed via fiscal buffers or smoothing mechanisms. Implementation requires commitment to cyclical considerations, expenditure ceilings, and integration with annual and medium-term fiscal processes.

• 改革的必要性：爱尔兰财政框架需因严重依赖跨国企业的企业所得税（CIT）而加强，这增加了预算风险。
• 负债锚定：需基于CIT收入波动校准，通过国际直接投资（FDI）和企业特定风险模拟，设定净负债与GNI*之比不超过40%。
• 支出规则（修正案）：建议以多年限支出上限为主，将支出增长与经济周期和债务水平挂钩。同时引入财政反应函数（FRF）来指导支出上限。
• 研究与实施：爱尔兰有必要引入关于CIT的特殊规则，统计和模拟模型需协助制定针对企业Ireland的风险评估。