IMF-长期弹性和增长的宏观经济框架（英）-2025_43页_2mb

The IMF Working Paper introduces the C-SDG macroeconomic model, designed to integrate climate change analysis into sustainable development policies by quantifying the impacts of climate shocks and adaptation strategies on long-term economic resilience and growth. Key elements include:

1. Model Structure:

   • Incorporates dynamic growth, human/physical capital accumulation, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics.
   • Handles both fast-onset events (e.g., hurricanes) and slow-onset climate effects (e.g., rising temperatures).
   • Models resilient infrastructure investments (costlier but damage-reducing) vs. standard infrastructure.

2. Key Findings from Country Applications:

   • Benin: Investment in resilient infrastructure reduced GDP losses from floods by up to 0.8% in 2035, lowered public debt by 1.6% p.p. by 2040, and narrowed SDG financing gaps significantly.
   • Jamaica: Similar effects were observed, with adaptation policies mitigating hurricane impacts and improving fiscal space. Sensitivity analyses showed trade-offs depend on factors like damage reduction potential and fiscal constraints.

3. Policy Implications:

   • Adaptation policies yield net benefits over time, offsetting higher upfront costs through reduced reconstruction and fiscal strain.
   • Countries face trade-offs due to constrained fiscal space, emphasizing early investment in resilience.
   • Non-climate policies (e.g., debt management) interact with climate risks, necessitating integrated frameworks.

4. Limitations & Scope:

   • Requires country-specific calibration, drawing on biophysical/climate data (e.g., FADCP dataset).
   • Future enhancements include multi-hazard risks, private sector integration, and stochastic climate modeling.

Overall, the C-SDG model provides a versatile tool for policymakers to assess the economic trade-offs between short-term costs and long-term gains of climate-resilient investments, supporting sustainable development through coordinated fiscal, monetary, and public investment strategies.