IMF-基里巴斯_选定问题（英）-2025.7_13页_426kb

Kiribati: Strengthening Resilience with Public Investment Summary

Core Content

This document, IMF Country Report No. 25/173, outlines the importance of public investment in strengthening Kiribati's resilience against climate-related natural disasters. Kiribati, a small island nation in the central Pacific, is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm surges, and flooding due to its geography and limited economic capacity. The report evaluates the macroeconomic implications of different levels of public investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and provides policy recommendations to enhance fiscal sustainability and economic resilience.

Main Points

1. Kiribati's Vulnerability to Climate Risks

• Geography: Composed of 32 atolls and one island, most of which are less than 2 meters above sea level.
• Climate Risks:
  • Rising sea levels pose existential threats, with projections indicating a rise of 0.51 to 0.97 meters by the end of the century.
  • Increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including flooding and erosion, due to higher temperatures and more intense precipitation.
• Climate Adaptation Needs:
  • Investment required to build resilience against sea-level rise is estimated at over 25% of GDP annually.
  • Adaptation costs could range from US$3 billion in a moderate scenario to US$45 billion in a high scenario by 2100.

2. Macroeconomic Implications of Resilience-Building Investment

• DIGNAD Model: The IMF uses the Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD) model to analyze the macroeconomic trade-offs of resilience investments.
• Three Scenarios:
  • Baseline Scenario: Public adaptation investment is 12% of GDP, with conventional investment at 29% of GDP.
  • Moderate Resilience Scenario: Public adaptation investment increases to 25% of GDP, supported by international grants, concessional loans, and RERF withdrawals.
  • High Resilience Scenario: Public adaptation investment rises to 45% of GDP, but this requires significant financing through concessional loans.
• Debt Sustainability:
  • Moderate resilience investment leads to a manageable increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio.
  • High resilience investment could cause debt to rise to several times GDP, raising sustainability concerns.
• Private Investment Crowding:
  • Climate-resilient infrastructure improves the risk-return profile, thereby encouraging private investment.
  • In the moderate resilience scenario, private investment increases, and the debt-to-GDP ratio even drops below the baseline by 2045 with PFM reforms.

3. Enhancing Public Investment Efficiency

• Efficiency Gaps: The efficiency gap in public investment is significant, with current levels falling short of best practices.
• PFM Reforms:
  • Improved public financial management (PFM) can significantly reduce the efficiency gap.
  • Efficiency reforms are expected to lead to higher GDP growth, lower debt-to-GDP ratios, and better post-disaster recovery.
• Infrastructure Governance:
  • A centralized database for tracking public investment projects is needed.
  • Operational and maintenance costs should be mainstreamed in project budgeting.
  • Comprehensive public asset registries are recommended for better infrastructure management.
  • Regular tariff reviews and alignment with market prices are crucial for maintaining the financial health of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

4. Policy Recommendations

• Mainstreaming Resilience: Resilience-building should be integrated into budgeting processes, supported by a medium-term fiscal framework.
• Strengthening PFM: Enhancing public financial management is essential for improving investment efficiency and reducing fiscal burden.
• Infrastructure Management: Efforts should be made to improve infrastructure governance, including maintenance planning and staffing.
• Local Capacity Building: Addressing skill shortages through education, training, and career awareness programs is critical for effective project execution.
• Utilizing Development Partners: Continued engagement with development partners is necessary for accessing climate finance and technical support.

Key Information

• Adaptation Investment Needs:
  • Moderate scenario: ~$3 billion (0.5 m sea level rise).
  • High scenario: ~$45 billion (1.5 m sea level rise).
• Fiscal Consolidation:
  • Staff-recommended consolidation is 3.5% of GDP annually.
  • This includes increased VAT and excise tax revenue, fishing revenue, and rationalized subsidies.
• RERF Withdrawals:
  • In the moderate resilience scenario, an additional 5.5% of GDP is withdrawn from the Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund (RERF).
• Debt Projections:
  • Debt-to-GDP ratio in the moderate scenario is manageable and may even decline by 2045.
  • High resilience scenario may lead to debt-to-GDP ratios reaching several times GDP.
• Private Investment:
  • Climate-resilient infrastructure encourages private investment due to reduced risk and improved productivity.
  • In the moderate scenario, private investment is higher than in the baseline.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that while public investment in climate-resilient infrastructure is essential for Kiribati's long-term prosperity, it must be carefully managed to ensure fiscal sustainability. Improving public financial management, enhancing infrastructure governance, and integrating climate resilience into budgeting processes are key to achieving this goal. With the right policies and institutional reforms, Kiribati can build resilience without compromising its economic stability.