期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2010no1_32页_1mb

NBER 2010 Number 1 Summary

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for 2010 Number 1 provides an overview of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and highlights key research areas and findings from its Economic Fluctuations and Growth (EF&G) Program and other research groups. It outlines the structure of the NBER, including its leadership, research groups, and their activities, while emphasizing the importance of empirical and theoretical research in understanding economic fluctuations, growth, and policy implications.

Main Research Areas and Key Findings

Economic Fluctuations and Growth (EF&G) Program

• Overview: The EF&G Program has been in existence since the beginning of Martin Feldstein's presidency and is now the largest research program at the NBER.
• Business Cycle Dating: The program maintains the NBER's chronology of the U.S. business cycle, with the Business Cycle Dating Committee identifying recession start and end points.
• Recent Recession: The committee is evaluating whether the recession that began in December 2007 has ended, based on real GDP and payroll employment indicators.
• Key Papers:
  • Real GDP and Employment: Real GDP began to grow in 2009, while employment continued to decline, reflecting a large employment drop since 1939.
  • Productivity Growth: The significant productivity growth in 2009 helped explain the divergence between GDP and employment.
  • Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy can have a large and socially beneficial effect when the zero-bound constraint on interest rates is binding.
  • Monetary Policy: Research explores the effectiveness of monetary policy in zero-bound environments and the role of liquidity during financial crises.

Capital Markets and the Economy

• Focus: The group studies the interactions between the real and financial economy, especially in the context of the 2008 financial crisis.
• Key Papers:
  • Payments System: Julio Rotemberg's work on payments clearing among interconnected agents highlights the importance of liquidity.
  • Maturity Transformation: Zhiguo He and Wei Xiong, along with Viral Acharya et al., examine the risks of rolling over short-term assets for long-term investments.
  • Banking Crises: John Boyd et al. argue that banking crises are rooted in systemic shocks, not just in the crisis itself.
  • Mortgage Renegotiation: Research shows that renegotiating delinquent mortgages is not attractive to investors due to re-default risk and self-cures.

The Labor Market in Macroeconomics

• Focus: The group examines labor market models, data analysis, and policy implications.
• Key Papers:
  • Job and Worker Flows: Steven Davis et al. provide evidence on the relationship between vacancy posting and hiring, using the JOLTS dataset.
  • Labor Market Fluctuations: Richard Rogerson and Johanna Wallenius show that aggregate labor supply elasticity can be large even if micro data suggest otherwise.
  • Tax and Transfer Policies: These policies can lead to significant changes in aggregate hours worked.

Forecasting and Empirical Methods in Macroeconomics and Finance

• Focus: The group develops and evaluates econometric methods for forecasting and empirical analysis.
• Key Papers:
  • Term Structure of Debt: Christensen et al. improve predictive performance by combining parametric and arbitrage-free models.
  • Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Models: Serena Ng et al. introduce a method for incorporating hierarchical structures in factor models.
  • Real-Time Forecasting: Use of high-frequency financial data improves macroeconomic forecasts.

Methods and Application for Dynamic Equilibrium Models

• Focus: The group works on dynamic equilibrium models and their applications in empirical research.
• Key Papers:
  • Time-Varying Parameters: Roger Farmer et al. develop tools for solving rational expectations models with regime-switching coefficients.
  • News Shocks: Martin Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe study the role of news in business cycle fluctuations, using auto-covariance properties of macroeconomic variables.

Macroeconomics across Time and Space

• Focus: The group investigates historical macroeconomic issues using modern dynamic theory.
• Key Papers:
  • Finland's Depression: Yuriy Gorodnichenko et al. argue that Finland's 1990s depression was due to the collapse of trade relationships with the USSR.
  • Post-War Baby Boom: Matthias Doepke et al. explain the baby boom as a result of increased wartime demand for female labor.
  • Social Security: Betsy Caucutt et al. link the rise of social security to the shift from agrarian to industrial economies.

Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Consumption Behavior

• Focus: The group studies the relationship between microeconomic consumption behavior and macroeconomic outcomes.
• Key Papers:
  • Consumer Expenditure Survey: A workshop at the 2009 Summer Institute discussed the evolution and strengths of the CEX.
  • Income Volatility: Papers examine income distribution, labor income profiles, and the impact of income dynamics.
  • Housing and Debt: Research includes mortgage innovation, housing and debt over the life cycle, and credit access after bankruptcy.

Income Distribution and Macroeconomics

• Focus: The group explores the sources and consequences of inequality at national and international levels.
• Key Papers:
  • Geographical and Institutional Factors: Studies by Acemoglu et al. and others examine how geographical and institutional factors influence economic development.
  • Political Institutions and Social Conflict: Research investigates the role of political institutions in shaping income distribution.
  • Redistribution and Social Insurance: Papers explore optimal forms of redistribution and social insurance policies.
  • Market and Non-Market Channels: The group documents how labor demand shifts, migration, and globalization affect income and wages.

Key Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• The EF&G Program has 149 Research Associates and 45 Faculty Research Fellows.
• The Business Cycle Dating Committee is responsible for identifying recession dates.
• The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations.
• The Reporter is not copyrighted and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.
• Research groups within the NBER meet at the Summer Institute and throughout the academic year.
• The NBER is involved in policy analysis and forecasting, with many central banks using its DSGE models.