期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-fall1999_50页_2mb

NBER Reporter Summary - Fall 1999

Core Content

The NBER Reporter Fall 1999 issue provides an overview of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and highlights the research activities of its Program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth (EFG). It discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, the evolution of macroeconomic theory, and the ongoing research in various subprograms of the EFG, including Economic Growth, Impulse and Propagation Mechanisms, Consumption, Income Distribution and Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Complementarities, and Heterogeneity. The report also touches on the role of the NBER in funding and research dissemination.

Main Viewpoints

• The U.S. economy in the late 1990s was experiencing strong growth and low unemployment, which raised questions about inflation and productivity.
• The EFG Program has been instrumental in shaping modern macroeconomic theory, particularly through the development of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models.
• There is a growing integration of macroeconomics with microeconomic theory, emphasizing the need for microfoundations in macroeconomic models.
• The field has moved away from ideological debates between Keynesian and classical schools of thought toward more empirical and scientific discussions.

Key Information

Current Economic Situation

• In May 1999, the U.S. unemployment rate was below 3% in major cities, indicating a very strong labor market.
• Since mid-1995, the U.S. economy has grown at an exceptional rate of over 4% per year, significantly above the normal trend of about 2.5%.
• The question remains whether this strong growth and low unemployment will lead to inflation or if the natural unemployment rate has fallen.

EFG Program Overview

• The EFG Program focuses on fundamental research on the performance of modern economies in the short and long runs.
• It organizes research meetings three times a year: in February (San Francisco), July (Cambridge), and October (Chicago).
• The program emphasizes substantive questions about economic fluctuations and growth rather than modeling techniques.
• It maintains the semi-official chronology of the U.S. business cycle, with the last meeting in 1992 to determine the trough in 1991.

Research Groups

1. Economic Growth (Charles I. Jones and Alwyn Young, Directors)

   • Focuses on long-term economic performance.
   • Explores the role of technological progress, wage inequality, and productivity growth.
   • Discusses poverty traps, social mobility, and income distribution.
   • Highlights the impact of human capital, technological change, and regional differences on economic growth.

2. Impulse and Propagation Mechanisms (Lawrence J. Christiano and Martin S. Eichenbaum, Directors)

   • Studies the sources of business cycle shocks and how they are propagated.
   • Examines the role of monetary and fiscal policy, credit constraints, and institutional effects in business cycles.
   • Analyzes currency crises and the impact of macroeconomic variables on economic behavior.

3. Consumption (Orazio Attanasio, Christopher D. Carroll, and Jose Victor Rios-Rull, Directors)

   • Focuses on the dynamics of consumption and its relationship with aggregate economic behavior.
   • Challenges the traditional assumption that consumption is driven by a "representative agent."
   • Studies the impact of macroeconomic variables on household-level decisions, including consumer confidence, unemployment risk, and technological change.

4. Income Distribution and Macroeconomics (Roland Benabou, Steven N. Durlauf, and Oded Galor, Directors)

   • Examines the relationship between income inequality and economic growth.
   • Investigates credit market frictions, political economy feedbacks, and nonmarket interactions.
   • Explores how heterogeneous agents influence distributional outcomes and macroeconomic performance.

5. Macroeconomic Complementarities (Russell Cooper, Director)

   • Studies the macroeconomic implications of positive feedback and complementarities.
   • Analyzes social learning, financial instability, debt rollovers, and informational complementarities.
   • Highlights the importance of coordination and synchronization in economic behavior.

6. Heterogeneity (Andrew Caplin, Ricardo J. Caballero, and John V. Leahy, Directors)

   • Focuses on individual and firm heterogeneity in explaining aggregate economic phenomena.
   • Emphasizes the role of fixed costs and nonconvexities in microeconomic decision-making.
   • Investigates how lumpy decisions affect macroeconomic outcomes, especially during recessions.

Additional Highlights

• The NBER Macroeconomics Annual is organized by Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg, featuring commissioned papers from researchers exploring new areas of macroeconomic study.
• The NBER's website provides access to over 5000 Working Papers, books, and databases such as the Macroeconomic History Database and Penn World Tables.
• The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain its independence.
• The Reporter is not copyrighted and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.

Conclusion

The Fall 1999 issue of the NBER Reporter reflects the breadth and depth of research conducted by the NBER's EFG Program. It emphasizes the importance of microfoundations, empirical analysis, and theoretical development in understanding economic fluctuations and growth. The report also highlights the interdisciplinary nature of the program, incorporating insights from development economics, public finance, and labor economics.