期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1996_1_31页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - Fall 1996

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Fall 1996 highlights key research activities and developments within the Economic Fluctuations and Growth (EFG) Program. The program, now unified under the name "Economic Fluctuations and Growth," is the largest NBER research initiative, with over 60 research associates and 25 faculty research fellows. It encompasses a wide range of macroeconomic topics, including business cycles, economic growth, labor markets, income distribution, and financial markets.

The report also includes information about the NBER's structure, leadership, and publications, such as the Macroeconomics Annual and the NBER Macroeconomic History Database. It notes the 1995 Nobel Prize in Economics awarded to Robert E. Lucas, Jr., a long-standing member of the EFG program, and highlights the program's role in shaping macroeconomic policy through its members who serve in important governmental and advisory positions.

Main Topics and Research Areas

1. Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program Overview

• The EFG program is the largest NBER research program.
• It includes the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which traditionally determines the end of recessions.
• The program organizes the Annual Conference on Macroeconomics, featuring discussions on new macroeconomic research.

2. The 1995 Nobel Prize in Economics

• Robert E. Lucas, Jr. received the prize for his contributions to macroeconomic theory, particularly in the area of rational expectations.
• The prize was announced shortly before the NBER's research meeting in October 1995, where Lucas was a discussant.

3. Program Members in Washington

• Several EFG members have held prominent roles in U.S. policy-making, including:
  • John B. Taylor (Council of Economic Advisers under George Bush)
  • Martin Neil Baily (Council of Economic Advisers under President Clinton)
  • Joseph E. Stiglitz (Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers)
  • Lawrence H. Summers (Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Treasury)
  • Alan S. Blinder (Vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board)

4. Growth Group Research

• The Growth Group investigates the accumulation and development of human capital.
• Lant Pritchett (World Bank) presents cross-sectional evidence showing that human capital growth is uncorrelated with output growth.
• Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard) provides new estimates of the value of the educational sector using lifetime earnings profiles.
• Gary S. Becker and Kevin M. Murphy (both of Chicago) use differences in earnings by country of origin to infer the value of education and develop deflators for the educational sector.

5. Income Distribution and Macroeconomics

• The group examines how income inequality affects economic growth and macroeconomic performance.
• They identify four channels through which inequality influences growth:
  1. Adverse effects on investment due to capital market imperfections.
  2. Conflict reducing property rights security.
  3. Adverse effects on human capital investment, leading to higher fertility and slower growth.
  4. Pressure for distortionary redistribution, which harms investment and growth.
• The fourth channel is refuted by cross-country evidence.
• The group also studies the interaction between technological progress, earnings mobility, and growth.

6. Macroeconomic Complementarities

• The group explores complementarities in economic activity, where one agent's actions influence others.
• They examine the implications of complementarities on shock magnification, multiple equilibriums, and nonlinearities in the economy.
• Researchers like Peter A. Diamond (MIT) use search models to study labor markets and the demand for money.

7. Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Consumption Behavior

• The group investigates household saving and wealth distribution, focusing on how income shocks and Social Security influence saving behavior.
• Karen Dynan, Jonathan S. Skinner, and Stephen P. Zeldes find that households with high permanent labor income have high saving rates.
• Michael C. Fratantoni (Johns Hopkins) models the effects of labor income risk and homeownership risk on asset holdings.
• Fernando Alvarez and Marcelo Veraciero analyze the welfare implications of labor market policies, finding that unemployment insurance has a larger impact than severance payments.

8. Diversity of Agents and Specificity of Assets

• The group explores models where agents and assets differ, challenging the assumption of homogeneity.
• Studies focus on asset specificity, irreversibility, and search frictions.
• James S. Costain (Chicago) analyzes unemployment insurance in a general equilibrium model.
• Harold Cole and Rogerson study job creation and destruction using a modified search model.

9. Empirical Methods

• The group develops econometric tools for empirical macroeconomic analysis.
• Focus areas include vector autoregressive (VAR) models, forecasting, and inference.
• Researchers like Charles H. Whiteman (Iowa) and Bruce Hansen (Boston College) work on forecasting, regime-switching models, and bias in VAR impulse responses.
• Christopher A. Sims (Yale) and Tao Zha (Atlanta) develop Bayesian methods for forecasting with VARs.

Key Information

• The EFG program is responsible for the Annual Conference on Macroeconomics.
• The Business Cycle Dating Committee has not met since 1992 due to prolonged economic growth.
• NBER Macroeconomic History Database and Penn-World Tables are valuable resources available on the NBER website.
• Unemployment insurance has a larger impact on allocations than severance payments, but both policies have negative net welfare effects.
• VAR models are central to empirical macroeconomic research, but there is a need for better forecasting methods and uncertainty assessment.
• The GMM estimation and instrument relevance are important topics in applied research.

Conclusion

The Fall 1996 issue of the NBER Reporter reflects the program's broad and deep engagement with macroeconomic theory and policy, emphasizing the importance of empirical methods, complementarities, and income distribution in understanding economic fluctuations and growth. It underscores the NBER's role in advancing macroeconomic research and informing public policy.