2021-11-24-UNDP-评估也门战争的影响_恢复途径（英）_68页_7mb

Yemen Conflict Impact and Recovery Analysis

• Context: The Yemen conflict has devastated development, reversing gains by approximately two decades. Indirect deaths (hunger, disease) now surpass direct combat deaths (over 60% of total deaths by 2021; 70% children under five).

• Current Status (End 2021): Confonnaissances estimate 377,000 total deaths (over half indirect), 20 million pushed into extreme poverty, and doubled malnutrition rates compared to pre-conflict levels. GDP is half the size of a no-conflict scenario.

• Post-Conflict Scenarios:

  • Fragmented Recovery: Delayed reconstruction; slow GDP growth; limited reduction in poverty/malnutrition; high indirect death toll continuing post-conflict.
  • Integrated Recovery: Combines elements of agriculture, economic development, women empowerment, human capabilities, and governance improvements. By combining all intervention scenarios, Yemen's GDP per capita reaches pre-conflict levels by 2033 (previously projected for the 2040s) and eradicates extreme poverty by 2047 (3 years earlier than conflict trajectory). Achieves a Human Development Index (HDI) close to pre-conflict levels by 2029 and reduces infant mortality significantly. Ensures food security and improves living conditions within the constraints of the ongoing war and domestic challenges.

Key Recommendations for Recovery:

1. Prioritize a durable political settlement. Conflict perpetuates development setbacks and creates a high risk of recurrence. A lasting peace is crucial for any successful recovery.

2. Coordinate international, national, and local recovery efforts. Reconstruction requires immense coordination and efficiency to maximize impact, especially with limited resources.

3. Invest in health and education. Human capital losses from conflict are profound, hindering long-term development; rebuilding these systems accelerates recovery.

4. Empower women. Addressing gender inequality, especially in a country with global worst rankings, unlocks substantial recovery potential.

5. Focus on food security given Yemen’s reliance on imports and agricultural constraints.

6. Leverage the private sector for growth and funding. The limited government resource base necessitates private sector engagement.

7. Adopt an integrated approach combining targeted measures in agriculture, governance, and infrastructure. A holistic strategy prevents trade-offs from constrained resources and maximizes synergistic effects.

8. Ensure inclusion throughout recovery. Development must benefit women, youth, and marginalized groups to achieve equity and sustain peace.