2022-05-16-UNDP-The_impact_of_the_war_in_Ukraine_on_sustainable_development_in_Africa_26页_7mb

Executive Summary

The war in Ukraine poses significant threats to Africa's sustainable development, exacerbating challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. Direct impacts include energy and food price spikes, trade disruptions, and macroeconomic instability, while indirect effects involve inflation, debt distress, and increased poverty. The crisis risks derailing the SDGs and AU Agenda 2063. African countries require immediate policy measures, enhanced regional integration, and increased development finance to address vulnerabilities and accelerate economic transformation.

Key recommendations:

1. Prioritize stabilizing African economies through fiscal space enhancement and debt relief.
2. Strengthen resilience to global shocks by reducing dependency on imports and promoting local production.
3. Foster economic diversification via AfCFTA, industrialization, and strategic investments in infrastructure and renewable energy.
4. Enhance social protection systems and inclusive governance to mitigate inflationary pressures.

Key Actions

• Prosperity Pillar: Accelerate regional trade, attract sustainable investments, and phase out harmful subsidies.
• People Pillar: Revitalize agriculture through technology adoption, provide targeted social support, and increase resource mobilization.
• Peace Pillar: Reinforce regional partnerships to address security and governance challenges, and safeguard democratic processes.
• Critical Time for Action: Immediate resource mobilization (including SDRs) and collaborative efforts to close the SDG financing gap.

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### Prosperity: Impact on Economic Growth
- **Energy**: War drives oil and gas demand to record highs; Algeria, Nigeria, and others may benefit, but European shifts could limit short-term access.
- **Tourism**: Postpones recovery in SIDS like Mauritius, with revenue losses due to diminished Russian and European markets.
- **Inflation & Debt**: Sharp price hikes threaten affordability, increase poverty, and strain budgets, with debt sustainability at risk due to COVID-era commitments and falling terms.

- **Key Actions**:
  - Redirect resources to vulnerable groups.
  - Reform agricultural and energy subsidies.
  - Support renewable energy expansion.

### People: Impacts on Poverty and Hunger
- **Poverty**: 50–80% of imports from war zones; high food prices disproportionately impact vulnerable households; cash transfers provide short-term relief.
- **Hunger**: Reduced cereal imports (e.g., wheat, maize) from Russia/UA; fertilizer scarcity hampers yields; blending policy & investment tackles production limitations.

- **Key Actions**:
  - Scale agricultural modernization through education/tech.
  - Expand social protection systems (targeted cash, basic incomes).
  - Diversify food production to reduce reliance on imports.

### Peace: Geopolitical Impacts on Security and Governance
- **Security**: Intervention risks (e.g., Wagner Group); proxy conflicts; election disruptions; rise in illicit arms flows jeopardizing peace processes.
- **Governance**: Unfolding repression/authoritarianism alert; volatile realignments may hinder democratic commitments and multilateralism.

-  **Key Actions**:
  - Strengthen regional security partnerships (e.g., AU, ECOWAS).
  - Enhance voter participation and constitutional protections.
  - Provide frameworks to manage urbanization and youth inclusion.

### Critical Time for Action
- **Recommended Priorities**: Mobilize significant financing (e.g., SDRs); leverage AfCFTA for value chains; promote inclusive economic reforms and digital infrastructure.

- **Call for Collaboration**: Wealthy nations must fulfill climate finance commitments and close the $2.5T annual SDG gap in Africa.