世界银行-战争的后果：叙利亚冲突的地区后果（英文）-2020.9-239页_9mb

Summary of The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria

Core Content

The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria is a comprehensive report by the World Bank that analyzes the economic and social impacts of the Syrian conflict on its neighboring countries in the Mashreq region (Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon). The study highlights how the war has not only affected Syria directly but also created significant regional repercussions through various channels such as trade, migration, public services, and institutional resilience.

Main Points and Key Findings

1. Regional Impact Overview

• The Syrian conflict has had profound economic and social consequences for the Mashreq region.
• Over the past decade, the region has experienced substantial economic losses, instability, and a significant rise in refugee populations.
• The study emphasizes the importance of understanding the regional interconnectedness in order to develop effective recovery strategies.

2. Economic Impact

• GDP Growth Reduction: The conflict reduced average annual GDP growth rates in Iraq by 1.2 percentage points, Jordan by 1.6 percentage points, and Lebanon by 1.7 percentage points in real terms.
• Cumulative Impact: These reductions equate to 11.3% of the combined pre-conflict (2010) GDPs of the three countries.
• Trade Shock: The trade shock, particularly the decline in transit trade through Syria and the stalling of service exports like tourism, had a negative impact on GDP in Jordan and Lebanon.
• Demographic Shock: Refugee arrivals increased aggregate demand and labor supply, boosting GDP by 0.9 percentage points in both Jordan and Lebanon.

3. Social and Institutional Effects

• Poverty Increase: The conflict increased poverty rates in Jordan by 4.0 percentage points, in Lebanon by 7.1 percentage points, and in Iraq by 6.0 percentage points due to internal displacement.
• Labor Market Deterioration: Labor market conditions for locals, especially women, worsened in all three countries after 2011, correlated with the economic slowdown.
• Public Services and Infrastructure: Refugee influx increased demand for public services, leading to both congestion and fiscal strain. Education and water services adapted well, while transport, health, and energy sectors faced congestion and built-in subsidies.
• Environmental Impact: The conflict increased municipal solid waste, but pollution in water and air bodies was observed only in some local settings.

4. Institutional Resilience

• Low Institutional Capacity: Iraq had one of the lowest state capacities globally before 2011, Jordan had strong institutional capacity but faced shrinking fiscal space, and Lebanon suffered from underinvestment and excessive public debt.
• Fiscal Space Constraints: All three countries experienced limited fiscal space due to declining revenues, high public debt, and inefficient tax systems.

5. Regional Cooperation and Strategy

• Need for Regional Approach: A regional approach is essential to address the spillovers of the conflict and promote a better equilibrium. Public goods like connectivity for trade can cross borders, and regional cooperation can help minimize public bads.
• Synergies in Recovery: There are significant synergies between improving social safety nets, enhancing service access, and building state capacity. These areas can be addressed jointly to improve economic and social outcomes.
• Barriers to Regionalism: Asymmetries within and between countries, such as elite capture and economic imbalances, can hinder regional cooperation and trigger protectionist behaviors.
• Historical Lessons: Successful regional cooperation in the Mashreq region, from the 7th to the 19th century, suggests that demographic shocks can be opportunities for regional integration and economic interlinkage.

6. Future Outlook

• Unlikely Economic Recovery in Syria: A strong economic recovery in Syria and its positive regional fallout is unlikely in the medium term.
• Regional Perspective for Gains: While intraregional trade complementarity is limited, potential gains from service market integration and infrastructure cooperation are large.
• International Support Required: A concerted international effort is necessary to support regional stability and prosperity. Supranational commitments can encourage elites to undertake deep reforms and reduce economic exclusion.

Key Information

• Methodology: The study uses a synthetic control method to estimate the impact of the conflict on GDP growth and other economic indicators.
• Data Sources: It draws on a wide range of data, including refugee distribution, labor market trends, public service access, and fiscal indicators.
• License: The report is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license, allowing for free use and adaptation with proper attribution.
• Contributors: A multidisciplinary team of World Bank economists, specialists, and external consultants contributed to the report, with support from international organizations like UNHCR and the IMF.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex and multifaceted consequences of the Syrian conflict on the Mashreq region, emphasizing the need for a regional and coordinated strategy to address the challenges and harness the opportunities for recovery and sustainable development.